Carnival of Personal Finance & Festival of Stocks | Home | Forex Positions

April 30, 2007

April Forex Results

I’ve uploaded my April 2007 $100 Experiment Forex trading results and despite the rough patch I had in the middle of the month, I saw a 5.15% growth in trading equity. My expectancy recovered as well but it’s still reeling from my disastrous position sizing debacle! My expectancy for April came in at $0.15.

In April I took 35 trades, 25 of them were winners and 10 losers. My average win was $0.48 vs my average loss of $0.68.

I’m holding a total of four positions going into May, 2 in EURUSD and 2 in AUDUSD. When I close them out, I’ll detail them in May’s results sheet. I must make an effort, as part of my neural net analysis for May, to pinpoint the price where I must exit a trade in the event the trend reverses. This will hopefully allow me to truly quantify my Reward vs Risk ratios.

[tags] Currencies, Euro, Dollar, Forex, Trading [/tags]

This entry was posted on Monday, April 30th, 2007 at 11:56 am and is filed under Forex, Trends. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

2 Responses to “April Forex Results”

  1. Gav said:
    April 30th, 2007 at 6:39 pm

    Well done tom.
    Just out of curiosity , how do you justify your risk while you keep averaging down your losing position? I am interested in understanding the risk management of average-down style of trading strategy.

    Have a good day.

  2. Tom said:
    April 30th, 2007 at 9:18 pm

    Gav,
    What I’m doing is completely counterintuitive. I control my risk by taking multiple small positions where I can sit out 150 pip price swings. I scale into the positions as long as I believe the fundamentals of the trend are still intact. This includes averaging down in a loser. Believe me, this takes balls of steel because you have to have confidence in what you’re doing and what your analysis tells you.

    The one thing I learned from these currency markets is that they over react and over shoot constantly, you get stopped out too quick only to have the trend resume a short while later. I thought, why not get rid of the stops all together and go with smaller positions based on a % of ,my trading equity. Currently I use no more than 15% of my trading equity per position, which is awfully high but with such a small acct I need to take larger risks.

    My ultimate goal is to use a 3% of trading equity position size.

Post your opinion