$100 Forex Experiment – Still Trapped

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This is week two of my positions still being trapped near the all time highs in the EURUSD. I had to lighten my load last week and close two more positions after the EURUSD’s plunge triggered two buy orders. I try not to have more than 4 open positions in one currency at a time and all of them remain in negative territory. Right now my average price for my position is $1.35682 and the currency pair is trading at $1.35350.

You might be wondering, why go against all trading wisdom and hold a loser. I wonder that myself but I trust my neural net models. They tell me to continue to be long. Why trust my neural net models? Good question! I trust my models because they’ve been right time and time again based on two observational methods: back-testing and real time observation. I’d agree with you 100% if you argued that back-testing isn’t as good as forward-testing, but my models are built on older data, correlated to a very high degree, and seem to be working well in the real-time environment.

Time will tell if the model is right. :)

[tags]Quantitative, Finance, NeuralNets, Euro, USD, Currency, FOREX, Trading[/tags]

  • Christian Gross

    You gotta trust something, and like you say time will tell…

  • http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com Tom

    Yeah, essentially I’m trusting my brain power. If I made an error, its my fault! Time will tell!

  • http://www.cpptrader.com cpptrader

    It is tough to stick with a system especially when it is currently against you… but that is one reason why you have a system, you can eliminate that part of the stress in trading. you have to find what works for you.

    while I haven’t done anything as advanced as NN or AI, I found that by developing market internal metrics, I could try to predict when my system might hit a cold streak… my guess is that an AI system would be more adaptive and thus not have the problem (?), so it may not be comparable. but my $0.02 just in case.

  • http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com Tom

    CPP: Your 2 cents are always valuable here. Thanks for the insight!