Black Swan Positive
I stumbled across a +45 minute podcast from the Royal Society of Arts yesterday which is highly entertaining, in a quantitative sort of way. The speaker that night was none other than Nassim Taleb, author of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. It’s a fantastic listen to, especially when he talks about something called “Black Swan positive.”
Black Swan Events (BSE) are outlier events, events that you never dreamed of occurring but they do. Sometimes these are negative events where the outcome is very bad for you. An example that comes to mind was Enron, no one saw it coming and neither did Arthur Anderson. I bet the Anderson people never dreamed that this single event, from a single client, could cause them to go out of business.
The more interesting BSE’s are the positive ones, these are the eureka type events which transform our daily lives into something better. An example that comes to mind is the discovery of penicillin, which was completely by accident!
According to Nassim, you should invest in companies that are BS positive because it limits your downside risk and leverages your upside. That’s great advice but the trick is finding these companies and then paying a cheap price for them! 
[tags]Risk, BlackSwan, Randomness, Podcast, Enron[/tags]
August 27th, 2007 at 11:01 am
[...] Mr. Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB). I usually don’t trade the Biotech sector but it does have its Black Swan positive charm, perhaps I should invest some money in it for the long term. Anyway, BIIB starting testing [...]
November 7th, 2007 at 8:10 am
[...] is a study of how we are regularly taken as fools by the unexpected. The chief characteristics of a Black Swan event (so-called because until Australia was discovered no-one dreamt there was any other variety [...]