Monthly Archives: November 2007

RapidMiner Video Tutorials In Development

Posted on by
2

I’m in the process of developing RapidMiner Video Tutorials for this site, free of charge of course. I’m estimating that the first one will be ready sometime next month but before X-mas. I’ve been working on this project since October but its been slow going. I’m trying to offset the cost of needed audio equipment (for voice overs) using Kontera and Adsense but I’m not quite there yet. Unless some nice readers want to send me a total of $100 via paypal (hint, hint) I can get started on producing the first one next week.

What I really want to know before I produce all these videos is what do my readers want? Is there anything specific topic or neural net model you’d like for me to address in the videos? Email me or drop me a comment!

What’s The Euro At?

Posted on by
3

I’m truly blessed to have a large global family and we’re a mix of European, Asian, and African ethnic and racial groups. On my side of the family we’re distributed throughout Europe and Africa and my wife’s family is predominately Asian.

Whenever I traveled to visit my large family, the cabbies, my relatives, and random people in the street would be able to quote their currency relative to dollar. Everybody knew where the Deutsch Mark was to the US Dollar or the Pound Sterling to the Dollar. Things have changed in recent years, now all my relatives know what price the Euro is at relative to their currency.

All things must come to an end before we can have new beginnings. Will we do what’s right and restore sound fiscal policy before the world says, “not worth a Greenback?”

Happy Thanksgiving!

Posted on by
4

To all my readers, members and friends, Happy Thanksgiving to you all! I’m very happy to have you along for this ride and wanted to wish you all the best for today and the upcoming Holiday Season!

Best Wishes,

signature

A Change Would Do Me Good!

Posted on by
3

I’m taking the day off to finish out loose ends at my soon to be old place of employment. Yes, I’m leaving my position at Booz Allen Hamilton and moving on to a Department Manager position at a small but world class Engineering firm. So I’ll be busy taking part in an exit interview and enjoying the free lunch people will be buying me!

If you read my last posting hiatus post carefully, you’d probably got an idea of what was brewing in my world. The sad thing was that all the large transportation jobs I was working on came to a sudden end for various reasons (lack of funds, deferring to later, etc). Work dried up and I had to make a move before I was forced too. For the first time in my career, I was directly affected by the slowing economy.

The bright spot is that Engineering work is starting to trickle back in which can mean only one thing, we can expect an upswing in the economy 12 to 18 months from now. I know its not in time for Christmas this year but I’ll take it!

PS: It’s my birthday today!

Gold, Peace, Prosperity

Posted on by
4

I was reading about Congressman Ron Paul on wikipedia today to learn more about him when I noticed he published a book (available as a PDF) called Gold, Peace, Prosperity. I spent some time reading it today, since its my last day at my current job. It’s a quick read and analyzes why a Gold Standard makes sense. What I found truly interesting is the history lesson in his Free Market Money chapter:

In California, during the 1840s and 1850s, many privately minted gold coins circulated. The practice was outlawed in 1864,” but as late as 1914,” points out Antony Sutton, “the U.S. Treasury was still trying to halt circulation of private gold pieces in San Francisco.” Why were such coins still circulating? Because the private mints maintained higher standards than the government mint. Often, points out Dr. Sutton, they were one percent heavier than Federal issues, “to protect the user from metal loss by abrasion while the coin was in circulation.” Private mints held to a higher standard because they were protected only by their reputation. They could not force consumers to take sub-standard money by the force of law, as government can.

Xerox Corporation – Scanning For Dividends

Posted on by
Reply

Today’s stock review is Xerox Corporation (XRX) which was recently upgraded to 4 stars from Standard&Poors (the S&P report isn’t updated yet). XRX was upgraded from 3 to 4 stars yesterday because of “valuation” but the real reason it was upgraded, in my opinion, was yesterday’s news that it would start paying dividends again. Words like “dividends” and “valuation” make my mouth water but I still have to do my due diligence to see if this is a stock worth owning.

The monthly chart shows XRX’s price above its 50 month moving average, trading at $16.08 (yesterday’s close) up from an intramonth low of $4.50 back in late 2002. The chart is in a uptrend, which is good, and it looks like XRX has pulled back. It’s too early to tell if the trend is breaking because of global economic pressures but it sure looks like its bouncing off that invisible trendline. I’d consider entering if XRX’s price keeps treading higher till the end of the month.

Fundamental Evaluation

Everyone got excited yesterday after XRX’s announcement that it would pay shareholders of record on 12/31 a dividend of $4.25. I’m assuming that’s for the entire year which makes it an approximate dividend yield of 26.4%. The announcement also indicated that it expects its earnings to grow to a range of $1.31 to $1.35 next year, up from $1.01 this year. Its current PE ratio is 15.9, ROA is 3.8%, ROE 12.2%, Gross Margin 40.5%, Net Proft 5.8%, and Book Value/share is $8.50. Overall the fundamentals are ok and without the dividend announcement I’d completely ignore XRX, with the announcement and better outlook I’m considering adding XRX to my portfolio.

National-Oilwell Varco, Inc – Drilling For Profits?

Posted on by
Reply

A former work colleague and I still exchange emails about the latest “hot stock tip.” He’s a relatively new trader and I’ve been trying to coach him on the importance of stops, position sizing, money management, etc. He recently asked me what I think about National-Oilwell Varco, Inc (NOV) because he’s trying to day/position trade it.

First, let’s see what they do:

National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV) is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry. The Company operates in three segments: Rig Technology, Petroleum Services & Supplies, and Distribution Services. The Rig Technology segment designs, manufactures, sells and services complete systems for the drilling, completion and servicing of oil and gas wells.

I particularly like oil drillers, suppliers, and anything oil related these days. I keep thinking about India and China when I go long these types of companies, so NOV passes on this test.

Technical Evaluation

NOV’s chart gives me pause though, it looks like the recent uptrend is broken for now.

NOV-111607

NOV is a classic breakout stock that has had an amazing run this year but last week’s selloff, and subsequent break of the trendline, would make me very cautious going forward.

Fundamentals

NOV is rated as 3 Stars in the S&P Stock Report, it has a PE ratio of 19.04 (high for me), forward PE of 14.13, and EPS of $3.32, it’s outperformed its peers by +110.3%, and has no dividends. Overall the Fundamentals are good but not inspiring enough for me to enter a position. I do like the fact that EPS are relatively healthy but current estimates show its growth as slowing for next year.

The end result? No thanks! I would like this stock very much for my long term portfolio but not right now, maybe when the price comes down more.

Disclosure: No positions.

End Of $100 Forex Experiment

Posted on by
Reply

After some interesting ups and downs, and one hell of a learning curve, I’ve decided to close down my little $100 Forex Experiment (member link) The reason is that I’m going to fund a new account under my LLC and start trading with a larger account. I haven’t figured out if I want to stay with Oanda or go somewhere else yet but I plan on mulling over my options this week, probably after Thanksgiving dinner.

Market Sector Performance

Posted on by
Reply

Sector Performance 111708

For the past 65 days the Consumer Discretionary and Financial sectors have been underperforming the S&P500. This is no surprise because in my mind they are mutually reinforcing, both positively and negatively. Of course I’m oversimplifying here when I say this, but when money is loose and easy to get, the general consumer shops more. This in turn grows earnings in those sector companies.

I’m a longterm betting man so my money is looking for beaten up financial companies like Citigroup (C) (long already) and maybe Merrill Lynch (MER).

S&P500 Volatilty Timing Report

Posted on by
Reply

SP500 Volatility Indicator 111707

The markets hit a rough patch over the last two weeks with volatility spiking higher, both on the $VIX and my indicator. We’ve seen waves of selloffs on subprime related news and higher oil/gold prices. My timing model did give several BUY signals over the past few weeks but I didn’t bother buying. If the S&P500 closes below 1400 then I’ll jump on the next BUY signal.

SP500 Volatility Chart 111707

What I believe we have happening here is a churn area. Traders, Investors, and Economists don’t have a clue if the markets will go higher or lower from here. Some people believe that inflation is tame, I’m not one of them, and that the weak dollar is good because it spurs exports. Although I’m remain Bullish, I’m very cautious and I really believe that we’ve seen the highs for the year. Now watch the market make a liar out of me! :)