January 2008 Archives
A homeowner who can't sell his house tells the L.A.Times, "Foreclose me. ... I'll live in the house for free for 12 months, and I'll save my money and I'll move on." Banks and lenders fear this kind of thinking -- that walking away from a house could be the smart economic move -- appears to be on the rise. Wachovia, in a conference call yesterday, warned investors that increasing numbers of homeowners are walking away from their homes by choice: "... people that have otherwise had the capacity to pay, but have basically just decided not to because they feel like they've lost equity, value in their properties..."It sure makes business sense to me why homeowners are doing this, cut your losses and get out but is it the right thing to do? I don't know if its right or wrong but I do know that the Banks need to start being more accommodative to all borrowers now. Lending has gotten so tight that our mortgage company wants to charge us $5,000 just to refinance our investment property, and we have great credit! With all this voluntary foreclosure activity, is it time to be a foreclosure vulture capitalist? Not yet, wait till the banks are choking on supply.
Executives at Societe Generale had originally insisted that 31-year-old Jerome Kerviel acted alone. They compared him to a "lone arsonist who burnt down a big factory". But yesterday they conceded that he was unlikely to have carried out his deception without accomplices. And in interviews with detectives, Kerviel was said to be "naming names" and refusing to be a scapegoat.What's even more interesting from this article is,
But Societe Generale has made it clear that Kerviel did not personally benefit from the fraud.If he didn't benefit from this elaborate fraud, then who did at SocGen?
In 25 years looking at the US economy and global markets, I have never seen such swift action from the Fed and the government, theoretically designed to avert or ease a looming recession. For example, the Fed's 75 bp one-day cut was the largest in its history and the fiscal stimulus bill was approved by Congress in record time. Everything is being done in a great big hurry. Why? And what further conclusions may be drawn from such action?Yes, what was it with this sudden 75bps rate cut? Was it a Fed knee jerk action to the major Monday sell off, which we're finding out now was probably a result of SociÃ©tÃ© GÃ©nÃ©rale's $7 Billion USD unwinding of a rouge trader's fraudulent trades, or does the Fed know something we don't know? Chances are the former and latter scenarios are correct, at least for me, and the Market Doctor might be onto something.
The markets are having a rough time since the beginning of January and its beginning to look like the Greenspan liquidity bubble is (has) catching (caught) up to us. If you ask me, thereâ€™s no rally around the corner right now but the start of a race to a bottom. My guess is that we could see the S&P500 at 2006 levels (1250) or even 2004 levels if things get really ugly.
For the record, Iâ€™m not a perma-bear and neither am I perma-bull. I just believe that for the past 5 years our stock market gains were built on excessive liquidity and the ability of the
Can you blame Mr. Joe Consumer, who in my opinion hasnâ€™t had real wage growth in years, skipping his credit card payments with â€œin your faceâ€ inflation, such as $4/gallon milk and $3/gallon gas? I surely donâ€™t. Mr. Joe Consumer is finally tapped out.
Although my post sounds alarmist, it isnâ€™t. The market will bottom eventually and then weâ€™ll rally but I donâ€™t expect that to happen anytime soon. You can argue till your blue in the face with me that stocks are really undervalued here, and they are if you add in the liquidity inflation. Look at how undervalued Citigroup (C) is now at $26/share? It was also undervalued at $45/share when I bought it. Subtract out the liquidity inflation and then tell me the price where Citigroup is truly undervalued at.
Itâ€™s no secret that I use TraderXL Pro to download the majority of my Stock, Future, and Forex data that I use for RapidMiner modeling. I use the BulkquotesXL module because itâ€™s able to download daily and weekly data from Yahoo and daily price data from the PiFin data source. Usually it downloads the data into separate tabs in your spreadsheet, which is nice but a pain to manipulate if you want to create a summary sheet to load into RapidMiner.
Have no fear, TraderXL Pro has a built in macro called â€œTickerHeaderâ€ that you can run automatically as you download your data into a nice summary sheet. This macro will runs automatically for each asset symbol you list and place it into a data column. The next symbol will be placed in the following column and so forth. You can download my template her: TickerHeader Macro Template
This should cut down, considerably, your data downloading process and get you modeling sooner!
However, if you want to build my spreadsheet from scratch, you have go through the following steps below and set a few parameters in the BulkquotesXL:
Step 1 â€“ Create a new project
Step 2 â€“ Enter your asset symbols into column A (see my example spreadsheet)
Step 3 â€“ Enter the data range to download (columns B and C)
Step 4 â€“ Select the period to daily (column D)
Step 5 â€“ Enter the word â€œSummaryâ€ in column F
Step 6 â€“ Enter the values "A1", "C1", "D1"â€¦ (Without the " ". Why you skip B1 will become clear as you read further along)
Step 7 â€“ Set your data source (Yahoo or PiFin). If your downloading data from more than one data source, you have to enter its name in each row.
Step 8 â€“ in the Data Field column enter â€œCâ€ for close but in cell I3 enter â€œD;Câ€. This will place the Date field of the downloaded asset in A1 and then the closing price in B1.
Step 9 â€“ Enter â€œTickerHeaderâ€ into the Autorun Macro column J.
Then click Download/Refresh Data and your done! The TickerHeader macro comes stock with BulkquotesXL module and has made my data downloading life a lot easier.
As always, if you have questions please leave me a comment or email me via my contact page. On your way out, please subscribe to my feed!
Early last year I worked hard on building an Excel based Algorithmic Trading System (ATS) and I made considerable headway using TraderXL Pro and Yahoo real time quotes before I got distracted by the birth of my son. It’s since been ignored and sitting in a directory on my computer but I’m considering continuing its development this year. As part of getting my head around this task again, I decided to share with my readers some tips and tricks I learned so that you too can start building your own Excel based Algorithmic Trading System. I consider myself a power user of Excel and I use the backend modules of TraderXL Pro to do a lot of the basic analytic analysis.
For the more in depth analysis, I write my own macros and then apply them to any downloaded data I have. Tonight I want to touch on an old post again and share with you a trick on how to automate some calculations using TraderXL Pro. (The best part about the TraderXL Pro package is that I can simultaneously download stock data, apply my pre-built modules, and then link it to a real time (or delayed) quote interface. I did this all with “one click” of a button and used it extensively for my ETF Trend system.) I posted a free linear regression slope macro in my popular Build an ETF Trend System post which you could use to build a generic ETF trending system.
The post contained the Excel macro code, a spreadsheet with some ETF price data that readers could download, and that’s about it. You could apply the macro using Excel’s Run function but that’s about all you could unless you had the TraderXL Pro modules installed. So for this post, I’m going to apply that same macro to the BulkquotesXL module, download new data, and automatically create the linear regression slope data “on the fly” (automating this task can save you hours of hard work if you are downloading hundreds of stock symbols daily so pay attention!), this of course means you have to install TraderXL Pro (trial version) on your system.
Step 1 - Download and install TraderXL Pro (use this package because it has a macro viewer in it)
Step 2 - Download my Excel spreadsheet (MasterDownloadNMT010108.xls) and open it. You should see the TraderXL Pro modules install into Excel
Step 3 - On the BulkquotesXL menu, select Download/Refresh Data. This will download the new data and create the sheets automatically
Step 4 - Copy “MasterDownloadNMT010108.xls!Module2.LinReg” exactly and without quotes into the Autorun Macro column of the BulkquotesXL Settings tab
Step 5 – Select Download/Refresh Data again. This will re-download the stock/ETF data and simultaneously create an 8, 13, and 26 Week linear regression slope columns.
That should do it! You now have over 15 stock/ETF symbols downloaded into separate sheets and a pre-built macro applied to each one. You could then link this data into another spreadsheet or set of calculations that will help you generate buy and sell signals (more on this topic later) for your ATS. In my future Excel based ATS posts, I plan on sharing with my readers how to build bigger macros, transform more stock data, and how to apply it to real time watch list that generates BUY/SELL signals. As with all my other posts, if you have any questions please leave me a comment and don’t forget to subscribe to my feed on the way out!