links for 2008-04-17

Time To Buy The Malaysia iShares?

Actually its a time to SELL any positions you have in the Malaysia iShares (EWM). My neural net model issued a SELL signal for today’s open. Your estimated gross return for the most recent position is about 1.6% (not incl fees and commissions) based on yesterday’s close.

I really like EWM and have traded her several times in the past and I’m looking for the next BUY signal from the neural net model to go long. The trick I learned to trading EWM successfully is to always use stops and trailing stops, because EWM can change in an instant!

I hope that my readers have downloaded the 14 day trail version of this software and are testing it out for themselves. Check out my videos on how to use this program and create your very own stock neural net models in minutes.

links for 2008-04-16

Highlighting The Blogroll

I tend to be pretty selective with my blogroll and I only add blogs that I think I like or will provide my reader with some sort of value. One of those blogs on my roll is ai-Quant, and I like his blog because he shares his expertise as an Electrical Engineer and signal processing with readers.

Now you may ask, what does signal processing have to do with market trends? At first I thought the same but when you think about it more, you realize that trends sure look like waves. One article he posted was about the automatic analysis of volatile financial time series which I highly recommend you download the linked PDF. That article helped me think of a few new market strategies and I probably would’ve spent years thinking about before coming to the same path as he did.

Market Timing Signal – Was It A Buy?

Yesterday my model flashed a signal but I couldn’t discern right away if it was a solid BUY or SELL but its actually beginning to look like a very weak BUY signal.  The S&P500 has hit a lot of resistance and support lately so its interesting to note that the markets can go either way here.

The best thing to do, in my opinion, is to wait to see which way she breaks and then get in on that side (long for up, short for down).

(Note the resistance between the 1310 to 1325 level)

Genetically Speaking, Watch Gold!

GoldLate last week I was working on a Genetic Algorithmic model and analyzed the current state of the market with it.  I wasn’t surprised at all when I found that Gold, not necessarily oil, is the major driving force of the sentiment of the market right now.  It doesn’t matter how steep or flat the bond yield curve goes, the higher the price of Gold goes, the lower the markets go.

Eventually Gold will run its course and the markets will recover but the key price level right now for Gold and the markets is $900/oz.  The markets will tread higher for any price (and dropping) lower than $900/oz.

ATS Development Takes Its Second Step

I sat down with the proposed ATS development team yesterday as an initial meet and greet and gave them a very rudimentary overview of trading and what an ATS can do. I think my presentation was a success because the developers started asking me all kinds of architecture and data acqusition questions.

I was excited about the reaction because it made me believe that a connection was made between what we can accomplish with this project if we combine our skills.

The next step is for the members of team to come up with questions (scope, scale, requirements, etc) for me to answer and then meet within 2 weeks, we then sign NDA’s, and start development of a prototype. If all goes well, the prototype ATS will go into test mode sometime at the end of the summer.

links for 2008-04-11

Update on the ExxonMobil Model

SNM-XOM-041008My Exxon Mobil neural net model went long on 3/24/08 and finally gave a SELL signal on 4/4/08. That move would’ve netted you over +3.5% (not incl fees and omissions). Subsequently, it gave another BUY signal on 4/7/08 and closed that position on the morning of 4/10/08 (SELL signal on 4/9/08) for a small gain.

Today its giving us another BUY signal to go long at the open today! I hope that my readers have downloaded the 14 day trail version of this software and are testing it out for themselves. Check out my videos on how to use this program and create your very own stock neural net models in minutes.