May 2008 Archives

links for 2008-05-31

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links for 2008-05-28

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  • In recent decades, Kennedy has shaped health care, education, immigration laws, the minimum wage and civil rights in America, under Republican and Democratic presidents alike. ALL THE THINGS HE SHAPED ARE FUCKED UP!

Mind Uploading & The Singularity

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I watched a BBC video documentary on the Singularity last week. I found this via Ugly's Del.icio.us links. I know that Ugly is a huge Singularity fan and can't wait for the day it will happen. Supposedly, all of mankind will make a huge leap forward in development and all kinds of societal ills will go away. I must say that I'm a big skeptic about the outcomes of the Singularity. Its quite possible that it will happen but I wager that it won't be used for the benefit of all mankind. Chances are the powerful and elite will use it to control the masses and make them do their bidding. I guess you can say that I'm cynical about my fellow brothers and sisters; time and time again we've proven that we're scumbags!

How Would You Build A US Dollar Model?

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Its an understatement that the US Dollar is in a downtrend.  Its pretty obvious which direction the greenback is going from the chart below.

My question to readers is this: if you were building a neural net model to tell you when to go LONG for a sustained rally and rebound in the US Dollar, what kind of data inputs would you use for your model and why?

Economics For Real People

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I finished reading Gene Callahan's, Economics for Real People, a while ago but never had the chance to write a blog post about it. I can sum up the book in three words, I loved it! This book lays out the basic building blocks, in layman's terms, to what Austrian school of economics is and how it should be the preferred method of organizing an economy at both the macro and micro levels. What I really liked about this book was how simply any reader can grasp the Austrian school of economic theory and apply it to real life. Callahan uses many examples in the beginning by creating a hypothetical society, beginning with one man on an island and then applying the principles of the theory as the population expands. After reading this book, the reader will understand the argument and relevance for the Austrian school of economics and be a convert for sure.

Capitalists That Care

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My wife and I are Capitalists that Care(tm) and we both sponsor children in Sri Lanka and Cambodia through World Vision. Unless you live under a rock, I'm sure you heard about the devastation in cyclone stricken Myanmar and earthquake rocked China. My wife and I are donating some money to these relief efforts and I'm happy to say that we're not alone. Trader Gav has made a donation, to Oxfam, as well. I'm writing to ask my successful readers to consider making a donation to your favorite charity to aid in the relief efforts. I would be great if you could both help Myanmar Cyclone Survivors and China Quake Survivors! Thanks!

Undocumented Workers & Inflation

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About a week ago I met up with the MarketDoctor for drinks. We do this from time to time to lament on the sad state of the economy and all that's wrong with this country, while downing a few beers. Our usual topic of discussion is about the rampant inflation rate that's been hidden in our economy and reported as part of the "volatile" food and energy portion of the CPI. That particular night we talked about how the undocumented worker actually helps keep inflation lower than what it should be. With an estimated workforce of about 12 million undocumented workers doing the jobs you don't want to anymore, imagine what the true price would be for apples and oranges in the supermarket if they had been picked by American workers? The volatile food part of the misaligned and outdated CPI index would probably shoot off the charts!!! Remember kids, there's no inflation as long as you don't eat or drive to work! What a crock of BS that we're fed from Bernanke and our Government. We should be ashamed to believe those monkeys.

Old Businesses Close, New Ones Open

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I drive down a very crowded NJ highway everyday to work and for the past 9 months I've been noticing a lot of local businesses closing their doors on both sides of the highway.  What's scary is that its at a rate that I've never seen before.  Within in two weeks I saw 2 coffee/deli's close, 1 nail place, and 1 pool store.  Interestingly enough, a lot of people I talk too are "starting their own thing" because they feel that they can no longer provide a reasonable life for their families or because they're in a financial pinch. Being entrepreneurial is a good thing but when your being forced to do it, it can be a recipe for disaster.  I think we'll see a flood of new shops and new businesses on my highway but I wonder how many are doing this as a "last ditch effort?"

links for 2008-05-16

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  • So quiet, in fact, that people refer to these cuts as stealth layoffs. Some bosses hardly say a word after people are fired. At Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, for example, the first clue that someone is gone can be e-mail messages that are r
    (tags: economy)

links for 2008-05-14

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links for 2008-05-13

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Put A Fork In CROCS Inc!

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The market must've been anticipating my acquisition of a pair of Crocs. Now that I have a pair, you can pretty much be certain the trend is over (sarcasm).

Life In Rural New Jersey

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They say a man's home is his castle and I can't disagree. My wife has been transforming the castle grounds into a thriving massive garden over the past 3 years and as a result, we've attracted a bevy of new friends. One of these new friends is the Scarlet Tanager.

Source

I've never seen this type of bird before and thought they were just lost in our area. After identifying this fine feathered friend, I found out that NJ is part of their range and they tend to winter in Southern parts of the country and Central America.

I guess our yard and garden is becoming more animal friendly over the years. I attribute that to my wife's hard work and not putting down chemicals to keep my grass green and dandelion free. Fuck the Joneses. :)

The Trend Remains DOWN for the US Dollar!

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I know I haven't posted anything remotely related to the US Dollar and Forex Trading in ages! I decided to close out the week with a look at the US Dollar's weekly trend.

Despite all the hullabaloo about a strengthening US Dollar in recent days, the overall trend remains DOWN. It doesn't take a rocket scientist or neural net to figure that out. The trend will remain down as long as we are invading foreign countries to liberate them and printing money. I would probably still establish net long term long positions on any major currencies relative to the USD, expect for the JPY.

links for 2008-05-07

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links for 2008-05-06

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Suckers Rally?

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It seems that some people are of the mind that the latest rally in the markets is a sucker rally.
``It may be a suckers' rally,'' said Eveillard, who is based in New York. ``Investors want to believe. But if I'm right, then there's truth to the argument that this is the worst financial crisis since the end of World War II. The same kind of reflex is the wrong reflex.'' [via Bloomberg]
Maybe it is and maybe it isn't. All I can say is that my timing model issued a SELL signal last Thursday.

links for 2008-05-05

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The Atlas Shrugged Connection

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I'm pretty ecstatic for Ugly after I read the news that he's quitting his job to join a web startup building ATS's. I consider Ugly the friend I never met and he's been the inspiration for me to start my own ATS. I can't help but think about Ugly's post today and his discussion about "earned wealth" and the creation of value. It wasn't until I read Atlas Shrugged, nearly 15 years ago, that I understood this important concept. I'm happy that Ugly has seen the light. As our society becomes more socialized, with our citizens expecting the government to take care of them (i.e. healthcare), I expect more and more rogue thinkers/entrepreneurs to gravitate to Ayn Rand's ideals and seek true capitialism. A lot of deluded people think that capitalism has failed because of the recent credit crisis and the "greed" that got us here. The real reason we are in this mess was that Greenspan sold out and catered to the Bush Administration by lowering rates to ridiculous levels just to keep dubya in office. Now, with the Fed bailing out Bear Stearns, we set the precedent that banks can create risky loans, screw the citizen in the process, and get bailed out by TAX PAYER money when things go wrong. Once again we see a system of "privatize the profits, and socialize the losses." If you haven't read Atlas Shrugged, I suggest you pick up a copy and do so. It will change your life and how you see Capitalism. It truly is the motor of the world.

links for 2008-05-04

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links for 2008-05-02

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NMT Is Shutting Down Sploggers

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I have nothing against blogs or websites that want to highlight or excerpt something from my Neural Market Trends as long as they give me a properly cited link back to the page. By proper cited I mean writing something like, "Neural Market Trends said" or "Tom from Neural Market Trends wrote," etc. What makes me steaming mad is when sploggers take my entire or partial RSS feed, add a stupid link back with text like, "someone said" or "GABA said, " or some other nonesense that makes you realize it was some sort of automated script that ripped off your content. Then they surround your content with Google Ads hoping that all this content will give them higher SEO and drive traffic to their site. Well I started fighting back and start reporting sploggers to Google Adsense (if they have Google Ads) and its been successful. Within a day to a few days, the sploggers site is shut down if its on blogspot or the Ads are suspended. That usually takes the splogger offline.

Market Timing Model Issues A Sell!

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I was surprised yesterday when I came back from a meeting to see that my proprietary market timing model issued a SELL.  I advise taking some profits here and being vigilant for another possible market sell off.

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This page is an archive of entries from May 2008 listed from newest to oldest.

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