The reason I asked this question in this post is that for all the gloom and doom of the USD, one day it will rebound and rally. The question is, where it would rebound from and what would be the inputs you’d use to give you signal.

What goes up must come down and what goes down will come up! How’s that for scientific?

My answer is you can’t. I am dead serious here. There is no real precedent for this since it is a black swan type event. The only thing you could do is do a series of Monte Carlo simulations that walk the path of the dollar and see where you get.

And if that fails throw some dice and see where it ends up.

Here is how I see things playing out from some of my past MonteCarlo simulations. Oil eases back slightly the market is squeezed, but the dollar keeps doing its mambo in a range. OR we have an oil super spike collapse of the equity markets and collapse of the dollar.

Right now the pyschology is to move into commodities to avoid the dollar drop. I am easing slightly back from my 1.76 prediction, but not much. It really depends on oil.

As Jeff Mache in Fast Money said, “There is only one thing to invest in, oil. Everything else will get destroyed by it step by step.”

Can OPEC trade in euros to compensate?

buffet: I think in the case of the USD, price and volume is alone and gold is not enough, sc (below your comment) has the right idea IMHO.

sc: sounds like you’re off to a good start! Thanks for sharing!

if you are the real buffet could you lone me 50k i’ll pay you back with 20% interest in one year.(ok maybe 3 years)
Also if you are the real buffet you would probably catch wind from some source conected with lets say, maybe the world bank, that might give you a hint as to which way the wind is going to blow on some of these currencies.(your problem is solved)Us little folks will never know anything before it happens, only as it’s happening.Personally to stay sane i decided to go only technical. i tryed fundimentals/news. i compare it to predicting the weather with a little wishfull thinking/dellusions thrown in.(sort of like a weatherman looking up at the cloads and stepping into some foul smelling,it can get a little unpleasent sometimes) In a NUTshell it’s more frustrating to me then just staying 100% technical.(no punn intended) I THINK IN THE END A PERSON HAS TO STAY WITH WHAT IS PAYING THE BILLS (oh don’t forget about that 50k )

P.S. on currency futures a person could use buy/short brackets to get in a possition to play the news before it hits the wires ” GOOD TRADING”