Citigroup Inc (C) – I Hate Myself For Buying It!

I’m either stupid or a glutton for punishment but I bought 10 additional shares of Citigroup (C) yesterday for my Roth IRA account. I figured that C was at its bottom and wouldn’t go lower than $20 because my recent modeling is showing a strong pull toward a higher price, but it didn’t listen to me! I went long at $20.15 and it closed at $19.60. Sheesh!

I’m still long C in my long term holdings and loving hating it! :) For what its worth, here are some price targets for Citigroup (C) I developed using Riskamp.

Upside Price Targets: $22, $27

Downside Price Targets: $17, $12

Achieving Financial Critical Mass (FCM)

I left work late on Friday because I got distracted running Monte Carlo simulations on our 401k accounts. I’m on a quest to refine my retirement plan of achieving Financial Critical Mass, something I heard about from Bob Brinker many years ago.

Financial Critical Mass is defined as the capital you need in your retirement accounts that will continue to grow after you retire and start withdrawing from it. In other words, your living off the interest of your investments. The trouble is trying to find the right mix of funds of stocks, with the right mix of contributions and savings to pull it off.

Most of my time after work was spent looking on the Internet for the median historical returns and standard deviation of those returns (no easy task) for the mutual funds and stocks we hold. Once I found them, I plugged them into the retirement example spreadsheet that came with Risk Amp and ran the simulations.

The result of my simulations are promising but I did identify some holes in my 401k strategy. For one, we’re not saving enough with our 401k’s alone; we must start contributing to our Roth IRA’s again. Second, we’re not being aggressive enough with our investments; I need to identify more funds with higher historical returns to add to our investment pool.

Although my market timing model helps me a great deal when it comes to making a higher return at the end of the year, I can do more to supercharge the returns on our account.

So what’s the first part of the new strategy now? First I’m going to schedule a monthly deposit of $200 into my Roth IRA and then add to my Noble Corp (NE), ExxonMobil (XOM), General Electric (GE), and Emcore Group (EME) positions!

Rapidminer Video Tutorial – Genetic Feature Selection

Note: This video has been superseded by the new Rapidminer 5.0 Video Tutorials (see videos #3 and #4).

This video has been updated 7/20/08. I know its been a while but I finally got off my butt and finished the next installment of my RapidMiner Video Tutorial 3. This one is about using the data preprocessing operator called Genetic Feature Selection and I talk about how you can use it to build a trading model.

The video link is to a flash (FLV) file. You must have a stand alone FLV player to download and view this tutorial video.

S&P500 Price Targets

I haven’t posted price targets in a while but here’s a quick one for the S&P500 based on today’s close of 1360.

Upside Targets: 1446, 1544

Downside Targets: 1348, 1250, 1152

If you ask me, I think we’re going to see another leg down in the markets but what do I know?

Oil at $139? DOW down 300 Points? Screw That! Today Was A BUY!

My market timing model was in full swing today and it flashed a BUY. Today was a lot of carnage and I suspect that we could go even lower from here. I hope everyone has their stops in place, :).

Normally I wouldn’t move any money in the market until the low at 1276 on the S&P500 is taken out. Still, the market timing model is a nice short term trading model too.

If you went long when the model issued a BUY signal and then closed the position and simultaneously went short with the SELL signal flashed, you’d be sitting on some decent short term gains as my little chart shows. The danger in doing this is that the model was designed to issue BUY/SELL signals for a longer time frame and you could easily get a BUY signal and end up with negative returns in the short term.

Help Me Build A Marketing Timing Widget!

Since the ATS project is floating around in la-la land, I want to move forward with my next project, a market timing WordPress widget. I’m looking for a PHP/Wordpress widget developer that can build me this: nmt-market-timing-widget (PDF)

I’m willing to pay for it but you must sign a NDA to get the formula that drives the timing model. Email me your quote if you are interested; its not a big project and I suspect a smart developer can bang this out in a few days.

ATS Project Floating Around

I got so slammed with work lately that the ATS project hasn’t gone anywhere. Sheesh! I can only be mad at myself because the ATS psuedo code document sits on my desktop, unfinished. My development team has gotten busy themselves and I’m thinking I might just have to hire developers from India or elsewhere.

Perhaps after June is over I can work on it more diligently and get it done. In the meantime, Ugly’s ATS success is keeping my ambition burning.