With everyone scrambling to see how low the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P500 will go, I’ve decided to throw my Monte Carlo simulated price targets into the mix. They’ve been pretty accurate so far and I use this system to find my Forex stops and limit BUY/SELL points. I also use it for work creating complex budget risk Excel spreadsheets but you wouldn’t care about that.
The benefit of the using the Monte Carlo simulation is that you can update the model with new information and get a fresh perspective on where the “key†price areas in the market and how you can profit from them.
The price targets below are from low to high as of this week and the bold numbers are the most likely prices to be hit this week:
- S&P500: 1099 / 1161 / 1223 / 1285 / 1347
- Dow Jones: 10400 / 10800 / 11200 / 11600 / 12000
- Nasdaq: 1700 / 1900 / 2100 / 2300/ 2500
Hi,
Are you able to tell me a bit more about your montecarlo simulation? I have been thinking of building one myself, but I didn’t know how far to go with the input variables. Is your model simply based on modeling the average price variance based on std deviations from price history or do you have other inputs (e.g. shocks created by typical price variance connected to upcoming events such as news)?
thanks
Caprica: While I share lots of information on this blog, there are some things that I keep secret. What I can tell you is that your asking the right questions. :)