Soul Searching
I did quite a bit of soul searching when I was away on vacation about life, work, and this blog. The most important thing I realized was that I start too many projects and don’t focus my time effectively. I’m involved in so many activities that it’s stretching me thin and taking quality time away from my family.
Right now I’m involved in two professional societies, one as President and the other as Past-President. I’m a manager at work that requires my constant attention, I’m a landlord that always needs to fix stuff and find tenants, and my family is growing more active as the kids get older. On top of all this, I usually wake up early and write this blog.
I spent time thinking about my priorities and opportunity costs (that MBA sure comes in handy) and realized that I had to prioritize my life based on the things valuable to me. So I listed them from highest to lowest priority.
- Family (love them to death, very valuable)
- Work (it pays the bills)
- Landlord / Rental Manager (it pays another set of bills)
- Professional Organization: President and Past-President (it doesn’t pay my bills but eats my time)
- Neural Market Trends (eats my time and makes a little bit of money)
Right off the bat, I should serve out my term as President and Past-President and then stop volunteering for those organizations. Next, I considered shutting down Neural Market Trends because it competes for time and no matter how much I love writing it, coming up with quality content takes up a lot of my limited time. I thought, “I use my Rapid Miner models to trade and position my accounts, so why not free up some time by shutting down the blog and concentrate on that? My models make me money, this blog doesn’t.”
Then I thought about the time when I had members, protected posts, Forex trend forecasts, and sent out a weekly S&P500 Market Timing/Volatility Report. I had over 100 members, that signed up for free, and things went smoothly. The goal was to monetize the members section at some time in the future. For reasons, unknown to me right now, I abandoned the report and the member section dwindled.
This had got me thinking that if I want to continue writing this blog and not have it eat my time without making it worthwhile, maybe I should monetize the members section? The trick to making this work is providing content that my readers find valuable and would be willing to pay either a monthly or quarterly membership.
While I mull this idea over, I’ll be opening up the membership section for free again (signup or login here) and will give members who sign up between now and when I start charging, 3 free months of access. I’ll start post protecting new and improved S&P500 market timing posts starting this Sunday and gradually add more content as things move along.



July 19th, 2008 at 8:37 am
It’s nice to know that I’m not the only one going around in circles.
Another thing that you could do to make money that is related to neuralmarkettrends and is a much more unique skill than sp500 predictions is Rapid Miner training and consulting. RM is the type of software that you can’t just install and start using. You really need help to have a clue what to do. Once you know how to set things up and you want to try something new, you need more help (at least I do). I don’t know anyone else who is doing this.
Your training videos are very good. When you started doing them, you got an email or comment from the RM team about how much they liked your videos and if they could refer people to them (or something like that). When I saw that, I knew a door of opportunity had opened up for you.
You could also do statistical analysis of trading strategies for traders. That skill has to be worth money. If I have a trading strategy that I am going to start trading and you can show me that it is not statistically viable, then you’ll save me a lot of money. If you can show me how to adjust it, so it makes me money, then that’s even better.
I think providing these types of services would be far more valuable than charging for the results of your models. If you market this well, I think it could bring in a lot more $$ than your full time job and you could do this for a living. There is a huge industry of providing services to traders out there and what you do is pretty unique.
July 19th, 2008 at 9:07 am
I hope you continue working on this site. What sets you apart from other sites is the substance of your posts. Rather than just posting ideas you actually put them to use with great exercises and tutorials. Please continue.
I’ve spent many weekends on your site and it has been well worth it, imo.
If you decide to monetize your site at a reasonable price I’m sure many will be glad to join.
July 19th, 2008 at 9:37 am
Shane: You do bring up a great point about becoming a RM consultant and seriously considering what you suggested.
Stanley: Thanks so much for your thoughts and suggestions. I’m still mulling this over but I really like what Shane had to say about the RM consultant thing.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Tom,
I am still interested in learning more about Rapidminer - and am will to pay for some tutoring.
Your (blog) work provides me with a dimension critical thinking for interpreting economic and financial complexity.
I am grateful and willing to pay for your work.
Incidentally, I came upon this website (http://www.forecasts.org/index.htm) while investigating our recent oil price fluctuation.
Regards,
Eric
July 20th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Nice blog, have been reading it for a while now. I 100% agree that prioritizing activities is important.
I think the option of offering quality RapidMiner tutorials is definitely promising. Some thoughts:
- Good online video tutorials can be offered on demand (unlike rapidminer.com’s own courses, which are on fixed dates)
- Tutorials are scalable, consulting isn’t
- Offering a decent amount of basic tutorials for free and more advanced tutorials for a price is often an attractive technique
- However, I know that creating good quality content is time consuming and is often an upfront investment
Regarding the blog, you may want to reduce the number of posts you do, while keeping the quality high. I read several blogs that may only post once every few weeks, but the post is always of extremely high value. This allows the blogger to focus on other priorities as the blog isnt constantly on your mind.
Wish you all the best.
July 20th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Hey Tom….I’m a fan of your work….and tried just now to register via the link you provided….but it won’t let me past the first page of the registration process. Seems to get hung up over “you must choose a membership type”…..but there are no choices available when I access that page via Firefox 3….or by Safari.
Can you help? I’m trying to beat the clock so I can receive the 3 months free access. Still doable?
CHEERS!
David
July 20th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Same as previous commenter, wanted to take you up on the trial offer, but the registration form doesn’t work.
July 20th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
@Eric: Thanks for your kind words and I’m glad that the tutorials are helpful
@Jack: Monetizing select RM videos has its pros for sure. Thanks for the idea, I’ll take that into consideration. Thanks for reading.
@David and Dare: Try it now, it should work.
July 20th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Thank you, Tom! Problem solved…..registration completed! Now just tell me where the S&P500 closes the day on Monday, and things will be great.
CHEERS!
David
July 22nd, 2008 at 7:19 pm
I think working as a RM consultant could work out quite well for you if you build the business up. If you go over to the wealth lab forums (see: http://www.wealth-lab.com) there is a guy there who goes under the handle of “twiga”. Twiga knows a bucket loads about advanced models for financial time series analysis (e.g. ARIMA and friends). He sells consulting services to hedge funds who like to eat that kind of stuff up.
the other way to go is to develop a black box neural net trading system that works with popular trading platforms. The guy behind “bogie-NN-v8″ has a trading system for forex and the metatrader community eats it up. the trick here is he placed second in an automated trading championship - so he got his credentials that way
July 24th, 2008 at 5:21 am
Caprica: Thanks for your thoughts and suggestions. I’ve heard of the bogie-nn-V8 forex system, everybody that uses it raves about it. NN’s work great with forex because of their long trends.
July 24th, 2008 at 7:41 am
btw. what do you think of tradertech’s vantage point?
July 29th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Hi Tom,
My suggestion is to focus on quality content and stay on topic(AI, NN, the market).
I don’t get most of the goofy links and the twitter chatter ;-(
You know I love you dude
Cordially,
-Digital Dude-