Monthly Archives: August 2008

On Indefinite Hiatus

This may come as a surprise to readers, or maybe not, but I’m suspending posting to NMT indefinitely as I pursue an entrepreneurial opportunity. I can’t go into detail about it here, yet or now, but what I can tell you is that I’ve been dabbling in this activity for over a year now and it’s promising.

I’ve made a commitment to spend the next four months using all my free time and energy to putting all my ducks in a row and getting it off the ground. I don’t know when I’ll be posting here again but I will leave my tutorials open and posts available for readers.

Thanks to all, its been fun.  If you want to keep in touch with me, you can email me, follow me on Twitter, or hook up with me on LinkedIn.

All the Best,

Tom

The Frozen Economy and You – Part 2

I found this via Financial Armageddon.

I had a master’s degree. I had a job. But to feed my three children, I had to swallow my pride and go to a soup kitchen.

I could segue into some political rant here, a slick dismissal of the Bush administration, perhaps, or a paragraph declaring my support for Barack Obama. But the moment I walked into the soup kitchen — the moment I acknowledged, publicly, that I could not provide food for myself or my children (which is why the soup kitchen is so much more difficult than the food bank) — is the moment that my ability to believe in the politics of this country was forever altered. I know why poor people have historically low voter-turnout rates. If you vote, you acknowledge that you believe in the system. And to believe in the system when you’re at the very bottom, when you’ve watched the chrome and ink-black SUVs drive by while you’re packing your own beater with dried beans and lentils, to believe at that point is fucking painful. [Heather Ryan, "Our Cupboard Was Bare"]

More and more people I know are being affected by the hidden inflation tax and are having trouble surviving in this strange economic environment. People I know, who in the past were down on their luck, couldn’t give a damn about the President or any political races. Their primary worry was where to get food, shelter, and clothing first.

Somewhere we’ve lost the American Dream for the masses and replaced it with the American Dream for the Political and Financial elite. Did I hear Benny say, “let them eat cake?”

Market Timing Model Says Buy!

My market timing model issued a BUY yesterday. The 1276 level in the S&P500 seems to be a very powerful area and I’ve added to my positions at 1276 the last time a BUY signal was flashed. Only time will tell if this was a wise move.

In other news, my new genetic algorithmic component to the timing model is showing that the market will firm up the further gold falls and as long as interest rates on the 13 week T-bills stabilize around here. Another component of the model looks at international markets and things seem to be firming up there as well.

Still though, my monte carlo model shows that volatility is expected to spike in the coming weeks, just in time for September.

In other non-market related news, I spend a lot of time in Twitter these days, you can follow me there if you like.

Ok, back to work.

NJ Foreclosure Data

I’m still alive but been extremely busy with work and some old REI acquaintances. The rumor is that my REI friends have overseas investors interested in acquiring NJ property and they want me to be a part of this. So I’ve been busy poring over the latest foreclosure data and I’m utterly shocked by the damage that’s out there.

Within a six town radius of where I live (secret location), there are over 600 new default filings in the last 3 months alone. Stalwart places like Bergen County are mushrooming to levels I’ve never seen before when I was an active foreclosure investor. Back in the day I never went near Bergen County because the filings were so pitiful and the property would be snapped up in seconds by the retail market. Now its a different story, from 320 filings to over 2300 in four short years.

Part of me wants to organize the investors and start buying but the other part of my is scared shitless right now because its really bad and could get worse…