Exciting Times
We are living in exciting times alright! I’m happy that the bailout plan was voted down but my guess is they’ll try to get it passed again. I’m not happy that 1.2 trillion dollars of market cap vanished yesterday but my Excel monte carlo simulations pointed to a slide to the 1100’s for the S&P500 if it broke through 1176.
I’ll update my model runs today to see where the S&P500 could go from here. I usually tweet the results on Twitter so if you wan to be the first on your block to get them, sign up for my tweets!
PS: The market timing model issued the strongest BUY signal yet yesterday. Even bigger than this one.
October 1st, 2008 at 3:09 am
Tom,
I always feel a little weird when I say how interesting and exciting the market has been recently since lots of people are probably really suffering from it and I’m insulated away at school. But yes, it is interesting.
You have great faith in your model. I don’t see how conditions like the current paradigm could have occurred previously in model training but apparently it still works. Why do you think that is?
Regards,
Max
October 1st, 2008 at 5:05 am
Max: My timing model was built and trained to identify market patterns in bull and bear markets. When I was in b-school, I did a research paper into volatility, timing, and the risk vs reward of buying when people are extremely scared and selling when they’re euphoric. It looked at panic events like 1987, and 9-11 too, all paradigm shifting events.
This particular model was able to identify, not predict, when key panic/euphoric events have happened. Its similar to using the $VIX to go long or short but it uses additional inputs across the market (International, Bonds, Commodities, etc) to identify where money is flowing and calculate a better panic/euphoric indicator, IMHO.
Yes I do have great faith in my market model and its either going to make me rich or poor in the long run.
October 1st, 2008 at 10:16 am
Cool, thanks.