October 8, 2008
Crude Oil At A 10 Month Low
The only bright spot I can see for our economy is lower oil. It’s sure to help with heating costs this year as people struggle to heat their McMansions or fill the tank on their Hummers.
“Sentiment is extremely pessimistic, people believe we’ll see a global recession despite the measures being taken by governments,” said Jochen Hitzfeld, an analyst at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking. “Many commodities like platinum, agricultural commodities or gasoline have fallen below their production costs.”[via Bloomberg]
It might be time to buy a bicycle and start walking to the grocery store. This market crash in equities and commodities will rewrite human history, as it did in 1932.
October 8th, 2008 at 5:50 am
“It’s sure to help with heating costs this year as people struggle to heat their McMansions or fill the tank on their Hummers.”
It’s sure to help anyone heat their homes, regardless if it is a Hummer and McMansion or a beat up Geo Metro and a Trailer Home.
October 8th, 2008 at 6:57 am
Benjamin: That goes without saying!
October 8th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
hi tom
Heard thru the grapevine (from Lindsey Williams the author of energy non crises book)oil to go down to $50.00 a barrel before it bottoms,and $2.00 gallon gas. also the russians and indo-asia to report the biggest oil finds, bigger then the whole middle east.
Checkout> youtube “Lindsey Williams With Butch Paugh-$2 gallon gas” 1of5-5of5 (with a dose of religion thrown in)
October 8th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
dc: thanks. I suspect oil will kiss $80 a barrel but down to $50? The one thing I learned about these markets is that anything is possible.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:04 am
hi tom:
I heard that video(about $50.00 oil) in late july when it was at about $143.00 a barrel, So i didn’t give it much notice,but when it went below $100.00 a barrel i couldn’t
get over the accuracy of this news. (what i would almost consider inside info)
I guess the only way to play it at this late stage, is to go short on a spike (calling a top)and take your profit when it bounces off of support, then do it again, as it does a cascading waterfall affect down toward $50.00.
FROM BLACK GOLD TO YELLOW GOLD
Just got some gold info from germany and Europe.
From some guy in germany>
===== GERMANY: GOLD RUN !!!
Quote
“Normal people try to get physical gold (bars, coins), the demand is higher than the offer !!! If, they put you on waiting list, you have to wait 2-4 weeks to get your gold. Actual demand for physical delivery is 10 times higher than in quiet times.”
ALL OF EUROPE IS STARTING TO BUY UP GOLD IN ALL FORMS
Statistics: London Gold Fix $913.00 +$31.25
NEWS:
GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: (6:00 AM CST) In the near term, safe haven interest looks to dominate the gold market and that safe haven status could be accentuated by weakness in the Dollar and a failure to see US Treasuries rally. There continues to be concern about severe deflation but in the face of the latest slide in global equity prices, the fear of the unknown seems to be glossing over fears of severe deflation. Some traders are expecting the upside momentum in gold to expand rapidly, as investors see fewer alternatives to park their capital. For the time being, the sharp slide in oil prices doesn’t look to have the slightest negative impact on the gold market. In fact, recent sharp sustained declines in a host of physical commodity markets doesn’t look to have any negative impact on gold prices. Sentiment is running so firmly in the bull camp that some traders are suggesting that the coordinated rate cuts overnight will be seen as a positive for gold, as that type of move could ultimately fan inflation. Other gold bugs even suggest that the failure to quell anxieties in the face of the coordinated rate cuts overnight, could simply accentuate fears and drive even more money toward gold. In short, the marketplace seems to be capable of spinning most scenarios into a positive for gold prices and while some seasoned traders will say that smacks of an exaggerated bullish consensus, it is clear the markets are facing something historical.
P.S.>IF GOLD TRADED LIKE THE S&P 500 (scenario trade)
If someone told me that J.P. Morgan had it’s huge short possition (that’s keeps the gold price suppressed)let’s say at the $915.00/resistance level,i would say it could easily be overrun.Also i would think with all the demand for gold in physical form in Europe and everywhere else,it could possibly boil over into the futures market and easily pop thru $915.00/resistance and create a short squeeze.
During the longs rally J.P.Morgan would have to give up on that $915.00/resistance level and start shorting millions of dollars worth into the market,in order to stall/establish a new short possition at a more defendable price level.By then it might be well above $1000.00. OUCH!
THINGS TO CONSIDER: (S&P 500 TYPE TRADING)
AT WHAT PRICE IS THAT SHORT PARKED AT?, HMMMMM,
and within how many hours would (we)the longs break through that level? 2,3,7, maybe. (THAT’S IF WE HAD A NON MANIPULATED GOLD MARKET)
CONCLUSION I REACHED ABOUT THE GOLD MARKET>
The reason they don’t want the gold price to explode is ,there is nothing that screams the word “inflation” more, then the price of gold doubling within a few days.Unless the
government doubles it itself,but probably after they call in/confiscate(bars,new coins)it from everyone months in advance of the price increase.(THEY WILL HAVE TO SUPPRESS THE PRICE UNTIL THEN TO GIVE YOU THE IMPRESSION THEY ARE IN CONTROL OF INFLATION) “just my opinion”
October 10th, 2008 at 5:18 am
dc: At one point in Great Britain’s history, they did confiscate gold because of the very reason you write about. Its bound to happen here sooner or later.