January 2009 Archives
Sorry my dear readers but I've been consumed withÂ Go, work, and photography. Â Sorry about that! Â What I can tell you is that my timing model is showing a return to normalcy in the market (even though the market is down on average 40%). I'm still saying the bottom of the market is (was) in the 700 to 800 range of the S&P500. Â On November 20th, we closed in the 750 range of the S&P500. Â Famous last words, eh?
Now that the new year is here and we went through the greatest meltdown since the Great Depression, what shall I do? Â Well, max out my 401k for sure and update my neural net models!!! Â I'll be busy working on them but I'll probably starting moving toward more genetic algorithmic models this year as they tend to adapt better to the shifting market place. My market timing model seems to be holding up but I'm going to review it to make sure its still giving me the right signals. Â The volatility indicator is showing a major pull back in market volatilty and if it continues to fall, I'll say we've made a bottom. On the flipside, Obama's Infrastructure Stimulus plan seems to be going ahead as all my clients are scrambling (compressing schedules) to make the projects I'm working on meet the stimulus schedule. Â That means I'll be super busy from now till April. Â If the stimulus really comes on full force, then I'll be busy for years.