Google announced “a new search feature that makes it easy to find and compare public data” a few days ago.Â This is pretty awesome and very valuable to traders who want macro-economic information in an easy to navigate way.Â Check out the Google video below:
All the stuff you post about yourself and what you like in Facebook or some other social network is a marketer’s wet dream.Â Data mining companies are now capitalizing on the free information you post about yourself, mining it, and then selling statistically significant data relationships to marketers via the social network’s APIs.
A company called Colligent mines social networks for data that it sells to record labels to help them decide which demographics or individual fans might like a particular artist, and those are just the very first nuggets marketers pull out of profiles.
This monitoring of publicly-available data has already paid dividends. Disneyâ€™s Hollywood Records label had noticed more Latin American fans at Jonas Brothers concerts than it expected to see, but until Colligentâ€™s data revealed a â€œstatistically significantâ€ correlation between that band and the Latin American community, it hadnâ€™t capitalized on that observation. Data from social networks convinced them to increase their marketing budget in Latin American communities, and when the next Jonas Brothers album came out, Nagarajan says, the label saw a significant uptick in sales to Latin Americans.
Thereâ€™s a lesson here: If you want to participate in social networks and interact with free content online, thereâ€™s a clear privacy trade-off. In a way, itâ€™s a fair deal: we get free data in the form of social networks and free entertainment, while marketers get free data about who we are â€” and what we canâ€™t resist. [By Eliot Van Buskirk]
The best piece of advice is NOT to use social networks if you want to maintain your privacy.
I recently started joined the Monte Carlo Simulation, Excel and ModelRisk LinkedIn Group and found a very interesting discussion thread on the type of probability functions people use for there daily Monte Carlo modeling.Â Since I use RiskAMP, an Excel based Monte Carlo simulator, I found this thread very interesting indeed.
Here’s an answer from Lan Ge, scientific researcher at WUR:
I used to analyze risks related to animal epidemics and used distributions like: Beta, Binomial, Exponential, Erlang, Gamma, Normal, Lognormal, Pert, Poisson (of course!), Student, Weibull, Uniform (Discreet Uniform)..right now I am analyzing a broader range of risks (production, investment, planning), I notice that I am using more and more normal, lognormal, Pert, triangle, and student.
What I use in my modeling is Normal, Poisson, Pert, Lognormal, and Binomial a lot.Â What do you use?
These are my links for April 28th:
- Citigroup, Bank of America Decline on Capital Report (Update2) – Bloomberg.com – after the Wall Street Journal said early results of the government’s so-called stress tests show the banks may need more capital. Company executives are meeting with regulators to dispute the findings, the Journal said, citing unidentified people with knowledge of the matter. – YEAH ANOTHER 1 TRILLION FOR SURE!
- Hidden Psychological Trigger Helps With Weight loss – The one most important factor to getting to successful weight loss is this: figure out why you’re doing it.
These are my links for April 26th through April 27th:
- Xinu Returns – SEO Site Statistics Tool – Check PageRank, Backlinks, Indexed Pages, Rankings and more – Neat – Via Fallond
- H1N1 Swine Flu – Google Maps – Scary stuff, is this the practice run before Avian Flu?
- Yes, Looks Do Matter – NYTimes.com – via maoxian
These are my links for April 20th through April 25th:
- ‘Horse Boy,’ family find respite from autism in Mongolia – CNN.com – Rowan, now 7, rides Betsy by himself. His parents never abandoned more orthodox treatments for his autism, and Rowan's applied behavioral analysis therapist has him studying math and English at the third-grade level — a full year ahead of some of his peers.
- Troys: One Twitter Script to Rule Them All – ReadWriteWeb – Troy's Twitter script, in our opinion, is crazy awesome. If you find yourself in a memory crunch and prefer not to use a standalone Twitter application, and use Firefox, this script is a must-have. In fact, it's too bad that Greasemonkey scripts really only work well in Firefox, because it sure would be great to have all these features in every browser out there. To that end, you can try using Greasemetal (covered here) for Chrome, or GreaseKit for Safari on Mac OSX.
- History of the Republic of China – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia – I love Wikipedia
- George Ernest Morrison – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia – Finally found this tid bit of info again. Read about him in Hong Kong and forgot his name.
- Neural Networks and Stock / Forex Trading – Via Caprica – THANKS!
- Pakistani Taliban confound Obama, Clinton – UPI.com – Secretary of State Hillary Clinton blasted the Pakistani government of President Asif Ali Zardari on Wednesday for failing to confront the radical Islamic insurgents challenging it. She told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that Zardari was "basically abdicating to the Taliban." But she and President Barack Obama don't seem to know what to do to reverse the disintegration of Pakistan either. – STOP INTERFERING IN OTHER COUNTRIES.
- Mexico City Closes Schools Amid Swine Flu Outbreak – WSJ.com – Mexico's Public Health Department said tests proved that 16 died from the new strain, and about 44 other suspected cases still being were still being tested. The department put the total number of people sickened at around 943 nationwide. – YIKES!
- NeoEase Theme – Saw this on the corner office blog
- My $23/month iPhone – I gotta try this – get an iPhone and jailbreak it.
- Thomas’s posterous – Home – The new Twitter. Twitter is sucking balls lately.
- Stephen Marsland – Machine Learning With Python Code – Python Code for ANN's and machine learning
- World Digital Library Home – This is way cool
- YouTube – The Nano Song – Only science dorks will like this.
- Jim Rogers Bares Secrets of Investing: Eat Snake, Beware Boys – Bloomberg.com – His daughters shouldn’t get married until they are at least 28 and should avoid having drinks — let alone dinner — alone with the boss. They should also heed this sound principle for dealing with boys: “They need you more than you need them.”
- Projects Downloads – Download various files related to projects.
I consider myself a Bullish guy.Â I believe in the markets and that they’ll recover one day into another fabulous Bull Market.Â Heck, I’m still long in my retirement accounts and still plowing money into the markets as part of my long term investing strategy.Â However, there is a short term reality out there that any sane person can’t ignore.Â The markets are still sucking bad and this rally is probably going to fall apart now or around the 1000 level in the S&P500.
How did I come to this? I did it through three ways: Technical Analysis, my recently updated Rapidminer neural net classification model, and my Monte Carlo simulation model. You can check out my example classificationÂ model in the tutorial section to get an idea how to build one.
Bottom line: We don’t have the right ingredients in place for a new Bull Market and we have more lipstick to put on this pig before we build a new Bull Market.
My whole AUDUSD neural net model is shot to hell because of the massive selloff last year, so I’m forced to rebuild it from scratch.Â As I ponder the inputs for the model this time, I’m spending time familiarizing myself with that market again.
So what do I do?Â Well I pull up a chart of the AUDUSD currency pair and slap a Fibonacci Retracement tool on it.Â Its amazing how many traders use this tool because prices tend to “retrace” to certain price levels BECAUSE so many traders use Fibonacci.Â Self full-filling prophecy I guess.
Anyway, I’d be playing a breakout of 0.7461 in this currency pair, if it can ever get there.
These are my links for April 19th through April 20th:
- Debt Settlers Offer Promises but Little Help – NYTimes.com – More often, they say, a settlement company collects a large fee, often 15 percent of the total debt, and accomplishes little or nothing on the consumer’s behalf.
- Preoccupations – Is This the Time to Chase a Career Dream? – NYTimes.com – This interest in what makes people tick, and curiosity about what keeps them from realizing their dreams, drove me to become a business coach 13 years ago. I never tire of hearing people’s stories, or of learning ways to help the creatively oppressed come alive. – I WORKED WITH A MAN WHO TOLD ME TO "FIND WHAT I LOVE TO DO, THEN FIND A WAY TO MAKE MONEY AT IT." HE LOVED LIFE AND HIS WORK.
- Sri Lanka Gives Rebels 24 Hours to Surrender – NYTimes.com – The government issued the ultimatum, giving the Tamil Tiger rebel chief Velupillai Prabhakaran and his fighters 24 hours starting Monday at noon to surrender before the military launches a final assault aimed at crushing the insurgents and ending the island nation's 25-year civil war. – SUN TZU WOULD SAY SURRENDER UNDER THE TERM TO ALLOW YOU TO LIVE. THEN LET IT FESTER AND START A NEW WAR IN A FEW YEARS
- Waterboarding Used 266 Times on 2 Suspects – NYTimes.com – The C.I.A. officers used waterboarding at least 83 times in August 2002 against Abu Zubaydah, according to a 2005 Justice Department legal memorandum. Abu Zubaydah has been described as a Qaeda operative. – ONCE WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ME
- Global Stocks Rally May Falter, State Street Says (Update2) – Bloomberg.com – “We’re likely to see a pullback in stock markets as earnings disappoint,” said George Hoguet, global investment strategist at Boston-based State Street Global Advisors, which oversees $1.4 trillion. “We are undergoing a severe shock and the global economy will take several quarters to get back to trend growth.” – WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY DONT?
- Bill Miller Not Dead Yet as Value Funds Bury Quants (Update1) – Bloomberg.com – “Not in a million years would we have expected this gyration to be as vicious and enduring as it has been,” Steven Solmonson, the head of Park Place Capital Ltd., a hedge fund that oversees $150 million, said in an interview from New York. “The quants got whipsawed badly.”
- Go4Go.net – Go for it! – Another Go site.
I really admire Bill Miller, he’s my kind of value/contrarian investor.
Bill Miller, who lost 55 percent in 2008 running the Legg Mason Value Trust after beating the Standard & Poorâ€™s 500 Index for a record 15 straight years, is topping the measure again. [By Alexis Xydias and Lynn Thomasson]
It seems that he’s been buying companies with a lot of debt and low ROA that rely on consumer spending, something that a lot of people shy away from these days.
I’m sure many people will say that Bill caught a lucky break here but after beating the S&P500 for the past 15 years, you have to wonder if he really knows what he’s doing after all.
These are my links for April 18th:
- Brooklyn Philharmonic Cancels 2009-10 Season as Donations Fall – Bloomberg.com – The orchestra found it would fall short of its $3 million budget, provided by individuals, corporations and foundations, and so decided to cancel the May 9 concert — the last of a season that began January 31 — and the next season, said J. Barclay Collins II, the symphony’s board chairman, in a phone interview. He declined to detail by how much donations had fallen. – THIS IS TERRIBLE, ART IS ALWAYS THE FIRST TO SUFFER BUT ARTISTS SUFFER ALL THE TIME! =)
- Jackie Chan: Chinese people need to be controlled – "I'm not sure if it's good to have freedom or not," Chan said. "I'm really confused now. If you're too free, you're like the way Hong Kong is now. It's very chaotic. Taiwan is also chaotic." – SOUNDS LIKE HE'S A COMMIE NOW