Monthly Archives: July 2009

To all my loyal Neural Market Trends readers

For the past year I’ve been debating shutting down my blog for many different reasons. At first I grew bored of it, then I had some family health issues to deal with, and now I’m getting terribly busy with work and life. I am forced to reassess many things in my life and formulate a new personal strategy, of which I start implementing today. I will keep this site open till the end of August and may delete it completely or just hide it away from view just in case I might decide to resurrect it one day again. I have enjoyed my time with you and I wish you the best in all your future endeavors. Cheers

Update: Something might be happening here again, soon.  Stay posted…

Links for July 28th through July 29th

These are my links for July 28th through July 29th:

Links for July 27th

These are my links for July 27th:

  • The End Of Fossil Fuel – Forbes.com – Americans, who constitute 4% of the world population but consume 25% of its energy, will have radically different lifestyles. Production of everything will have to be re-localized. Instead of our food traveling an average 1,500 miles before it reaches us, it will have to come from nearby and use organic methods instead of requiring 10 calories of fossil fuel inputs for every calorie of food we eat.
  • Traders Profit With Computers Set at High Speed – NYTimes.com – “This is where all the money is getting made,” said William H. Donaldson, former chairman and chief executive of the New York Stock Exchange and today an adviser to a big hedge fund. “If an individual investor doesn’t have the means to keep up, they’re at a huge disadvantage.”
  • The End Of Fossil Fuel – Forbes.com – Americans, who constitute 4% of the world population but consume 25% of its energy, will have radically different lifestyles. Production of everything will have to be re-localized. Instead of our food traveling an average 1,500 miles before it reaches us, it will have to come from nearby and use organic methods instead of requiring 10 calories of fossil fuel inputs for every calorie of food we eat.
  • Traders Profit With Computers Set at High Speed – NYTimes.com – “This is where all the money is getting made,” said William H. Donaldson, former chairman and chief executive of the New York Stock Exchange and today an adviser to a big hedge fund. “If an individual investor doesn’t have the means to keep up, they’re at a huge disadvantage.”
  • Scientists Worry Machines May Outsmart Man – NYTimes.com – The Kurzweil version of technological utopia has captured imaginations in Silicon Valley. This summer an organization called the Singularity University began offering courses to prepare a “cadre” to shape the advances and help society cope with the ramifications. THE CULT CONTINUES!

S&P500 Option Volatility Scorecard

The results are in this morning and the prediction was wrong this time!  Last Friday’s historical volatility close was 0.1444, DOWN from 0.214090  the Friday before that.  For the last two predictions the model made, I had one correct and one wrong.

For this week’s prediction, you have to read my S&P500 Option Volatility tweet (you can follow me on Twitter here), I will continue to keep score on Monday mornings to see if this model truly is 60% accurate for predicting the direction of volatility.

Links for July 20th

These are my links for July 20th:

  • Nassim Taleb: clown of quantitative finance « Locklin on science – As such, Taleb is merely setting himself up as some sort of heretical alpha monkey of the quants for stating the obvious, the misleading, and occasionally the gratuitously wrong-headed and untrue. – LOL HERETICAL ALPHA MONKEY OF THE QUANTS
  • TheHill.com – IG: Treasury ‘failed’ to adopt bailout safeguards – Barofsky said that while the TARP program that Congress passed amounts to $700 billion, the total federal government support since 2007 for the economy and the financial sector could reach a far higher figure of $23.7 trillion. The government has committed significantly more money through a variety of other federal agencies and programs. 24 TRILLION DOLLARS??????

The Crisis of Credit Visualized

This week’s data visualization post is actually a very well made video about the Credit Crisis by Jonathan Jarvis. I learned a few things from this video myself and its a fantastic way to see how we got into this mess, and who was ultimately responsible for setting this shit ball rolling (GREENSPAN).

The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

Links for July 19th through July 20th

These are my links for July 19th through July 20th:

Marketing Bottoming – Really?

stocksEveryone is so hoping that the market is bottoming because they all want to recoup their losses from last year, especially us 401k holders.  For some strange reason, corporate profits appear to be beating expectations and everyone is hoping (wishing) that the market has bottomed and turned the corner.

“Corporate profits are beating expectations by their widest margins in a year, pushing most equity markets within a whisker of new year-to-date highs and the dollar toward its 2009 lows,” John Normand, head of global currency strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London, wrote in a research note. [via Bloomberg]

What everyone forgets is that these corporate earnings, especially if you are a bank, are based on the backs of the American taxpayer and bailouts. Sure some corporate earnings are legitimate but most of these earnings defy common sense and logic.  That’s why the US Dollar is heading lower, we’re going to destroy our greenback at the expense of trying to stabilize the markets with phony earnings.

Call me an old cranky fart but we’ll be in for one more decent run in the S&P500 before it takes another big dump.  Things are lining up for a classic short squeeze where we’ll see the S&P500 run up between the 1131 and 1210 levels. This time I’ll be dumping before that and rotating some of my recent 401k profits into cash, waiting for the capitulation in the markets (which hasn’t happened BTW) to go on a buying spree.