Comments on: Mea Culpa – What I Learned From This Market Crash http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/2009/12/22/mea-culpa-%e2%80%93-what-i-learned-from-this-market-crash/ Rapidminer Evangelism & Consulting Fri, 10 Feb 2012 14:59:20 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Tom http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/2009/12/22/mea-culpa-%e2%80%93-what-i-learned-from-this-market-crash/comment-page-1/#comment-2734 Tom Mon, 04 Jan 2010 18:45:11 +0000 http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/?p=1864#comment-2734 Rick: Yes I did but they weren't able to turn on a dime.  The market timing did ok but as I wrote it didn't generate optimal signals. Rick: Yes I did but they weren't able to turn on a dime.  The market timing did ok but as I wrote it didn't generate optimal signals.

]]> By: Rick http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/2009/12/22/mea-culpa-%e2%80%93-what-i-learned-from-this-market-crash/comment-page-1/#comment-2730 Rick Wed, 30 Dec 2009 15:30:12 +0000 http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/?p=1864#comment-2730 Tom, When you built your models did you use data from the Nasdaq crash from 2000-2002? If so, I wonder what you think was different this time such that your models didn't handle the recent extreme bear market? Tom,
When you built your models did you use data from the Nasdaq crash from 2000-2002?
If so, I wonder what you think was different this time such that your models didn't handle the recent extreme bear market?

]]> By: Tom http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/2009/12/22/mea-culpa-%e2%80%93-what-i-learned-from-this-market-crash/comment-page-1/#comment-2728 Tom Thu, 24 Dec 2009 13:08:51 +0000 http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/?p=1864#comment-2728 Michal: The models did OK for market timing purposes but weren't able to determine the best time to move money into the market. So I bought at the wrong dip a lot.  They failed when it came to using them directly for trading and entering/exiting positions on individual stocks/ETFs/Currencies. As I wrote, I'll be reassessing how they fit into my overall trading strategy from now on, but I won't rely on them solely.  Add in loose money mangement and not holding hard stops, also compounded my stupidity. I take 2009 in stride and learn from my mistakes. Merry Xmas and Happy New year to you too!  Hope this clears it up a bit. Michal: The models did OK for market timing purposes but weren't able to determine the best time to move money into the market. So I bought at the wrong dip a lot. 
They failed when it came to using them directly for trading and entering/exiting positions on individual stocks/ETFs/Currencies.
As I wrote, I'll be reassessing how they fit into my overall trading strategy from now on, but I won't rely on them solely.  Add in loose money mangement and not holding hard stops, also compounded my stupidity.
I take 2009 in stride and learn from my mistakes. Merry Xmas and Happy New year to you too!  Hope this clears it up a bit.

]]> By: Michal http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/2009/12/22/mea-culpa-%e2%80%93-what-i-learned-from-this-market-crash/comment-page-1/#comment-2727 Michal Thu, 24 Dec 2009 12:24:48 +0000 http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/?p=1864#comment-2727 Hi, I've just found your blog on the net and read this post. Your blog seems to be interesting to me as I also develop some neural network trading strategies on my own. Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the market conditions changes and how they had impact on your system. As you've mentioned portfolio destruction, then I have a question: what was the real reason for that? You've wrote something about money management. Does it mean that it was the lack of discipline as the main factor destroying your portfolio? What i'm interested about is how much loss would you have from your neural network system if sticking to the money management rules? From my private experience I can say that making the transaction systems fully automated (with money management built-in) works better for me as it helps to get rid of any emotional decisions. Merry Xmas and everything the best in 2010! Hi, I've just found your blog on the net and read this post. Your blog seems to be interesting to me as I also develop some neural network trading strategies on my own. Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the market conditions changes and how they had impact on your system.
As you've mentioned portfolio destruction, then I have a question: what was the real reason for that? You've wrote something about money management. Does it mean that it was the lack of discipline as the main factor destroying your portfolio? What i'm interested about is how much loss would you have from your neural network system if sticking to the money management rules?
From my private experience I can say that making the transaction systems fully automated (with money management built-in) works better for me as it helps to get rid of any emotional decisions.

Merry Xmas and everything the best in 2010!

]]> By: Tom http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/2009/12/22/mea-culpa-%e2%80%93-what-i-learned-from-this-market-crash/comment-page-1/#comment-2725 Tom Wed, 23 Dec 2009 11:58:28 +0000 http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/?p=1864#comment-2725 It was a tough post to write for sure but I feel better. It was a tough post to write for sure but I feel better.

]]> By: Nobody http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/2009/12/22/mea-culpa-%e2%80%93-what-i-learned-from-this-market-crash/comment-page-1/#comment-2724 Nobody Wed, 23 Dec 2009 01:40:39 +0000 http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/?p=1864#comment-2724 I bet that was a tough blog to write.  Thanks. I bet that was a tough blog to write.  Thanks.

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