$SLV is acting strangely again. A warning flag came up in my model that the trend might be breaking down in this ETF BUT it sure looked that way back in July 2009 as well. Then it broke below the channel but stopped at the 50 week moving average. This time it poked and closed below the 50 week moving average.
Is $SLV tricking us again? What do you think? If you leave a comment, I'll reveal my answer…
One more leg down completing a C-wave that completes wave 4 of primary wave 5, getting ready to buy after the congestion fumes out.
Ah, you're an EW'er then? SLV will hit support at the 200 WMA, then it'll turn up but hit interference at the 50 WMA. That's my guess.
Not strictly, I also use fractals, fib retracements, ribbons of SMAs with fib intervals, an osscillator that is basically a 5-34-5 MACD but taking the median of each averaged period, and lately I've been getting into correlation analysis to scale in and watch for cues. Watching Gold/SPX/Copper a lot lately. EW by itself will eat your account up and requires non-confirmation criteria. I agree that we'll fall to the 200 WMA, or thereabouts, and if we see an explosive bounce then that's our cue that we're in for new highs on gold at least. If we see chop then we're in a deflationary scenario and getting long USD is the ticket.
Maybe, just maybe, we'll see the carry trade unwind and gold rally at the same time.