Building an AI financial market model – Lesson V

The Downloads For This Lessons Have Been Updated for RapidMiner4.0

In this lesson we will build a prediction experiment for you to test new data against and predict if Gold’s trend is UP or DOWN! Since I put you through four grueling lesson previously, I’m going to take it easy on you here and give you the completed model.

A prediction model, for trend analysis, is typically the same for every one you develop. All it really requires is a data loader for your test data, an experiment visualizer (this is not mandatory but highly suggested), a model loader, and finally a model applier. That’s it, only 4 operators are needed to complete your entire experiment!

Step 1 – Build the Prediction Experiment

This is where you get off easy, I’ve built the prediction model already for you. All you have to do is download the predictive experiment (in zip format: GA-Gold-prediction) and then load it into YALE. (click here for the RapidMiner Compatible Prediction experiment)

Step 2 – Load in the Test Data & Model

Get your test data and load into YALE through the ExcelExampleSource operator. For this example we will use the following Excel spreadsheet: GA-Gold-Test. Select this spreadsheet in the operator and make sure the label field is set at zero (your test data should not have your output label in it because this is what you are trying to predict, it should therefore be zero) and change the id field to 1 (this is for your date column).

Next load in your model (gold_final.mod) that you created in Lesson IV and that I so graciously added to the GA-Gold-Prediction zip file. (click here for the RapidMiner Compatible version)

Step 3 – Run the Experiment

Click Run and YALE will spit back the results in a few seconds. Click on the data view in the Results Tab and you’ll see your predicted trend value (UP or DOWN). Congratulations! You’ve built your first trend model and predicted the trend in Gold!

Conclusion

I hope that you enjoyed these lessons and learned a little bit about the powerful ability of YALE. When I started learning YALE, no one was there to help me. It was one heck of learning curve but after trail and error, it got significantly easier for me to create models. I would guess that it took me 9 months of learning to get to where I am now, it took you 5 lessons!

If you decide to continue with building models, I highly suggest that you continue using YALE, you’ll be surprised at what it can do. Make sure you tip me when you make that cool million trading Gold.

Future Lessons

In future lessons I hope to show my readers how to build a model driven by genetic feature selection and an event driven model. If you have any questions or comments, please email me or drop me a comment. If you enjoyed these lessons, please consider subscribing to my RSS feed and passing the word about Neural Market Trends around.

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