Alright, I’m back

Alright I’m back from my hiatus.  I’ve been very busy and you’ll be seeing some changes to NMT over time as I implement my entrepreneurial ideas.  I expect to be pretty busy so posting will be intermittent.

What a crazy market its been, hasn’t it?  My timing model blew a nut yesterday and I believe this was the bottom but I can’t be certain till I see the volatility indicator go below 2.0, right now its at 2.7 after peaking at 3.5.

If I have time, I’ll record my next video tutorial this weekend (or tonight).  If you want it sooner then send me oodles of money via paypal.  :)

State Of The Market

It figures that the Gold and Oil markets start to collapse just as I go on hiatus. My guess is that hedge funds are selling their winners to cover their losers (financials, banks, etc). This has had a nasty consequence in the currency markets with the AUDUSD collapsing from its near parity with the USD to around 0.80. Next stop for Gold could be $600 and Oil maybe $80 (wishful thinking?).

My timing models are going wild and pointing to a lot of market crosscurrents. This shouldn’t surprise me because we are in September after all and I can’t wait for October. We are at a very heavy volatility area in the S&P500 market and we could be making a low or preparing for the next leg down. If we are to go lower from here, it’ll be at least a 100 point drop in the S&P500 down to the 1100 level. How’s that for optimism? The upside potential for the S&P is around 1350 right now.

I’m still on hiatus but had to pop in to make a few comments. I should post my last video tutorial sometime but I don’t know when I’ll get to that.

The Frozen Economy and You – Part 2

I found this via Financial Armageddon.

I had a master’s degree. I had a job. But to feed my three children, I had to swallow my pride and go to a soup kitchen.

I could segue into some political rant here, a slick dismissal of the Bush administration, perhaps, or a paragraph declaring my support for Barack Obama. But the moment I walked into the soup kitchen — the moment I acknowledged, publicly, that I could not provide food for myself or my children (which is why the soup kitchen is so much more difficult than the food bank) — is the moment that my ability to believe in the politics of this country was forever altered. I know why poor people have historically low voter-turnout rates. If you vote, you acknowledge that you believe in the system. And to believe in the system when you’re at the very bottom, when you’ve watched the chrome and ink-black SUVs drive by while you’re packing your own beater with dried beans and lentils, to believe at that point is fucking painful. [Heather Ryan, "Our Cupboard Was Bare"]

More and more people I know are being affected by the hidden inflation tax and are having trouble surviving in this strange economic environment. People I know, who in the past were down on their luck, couldn’t give a damn about the President or any political races. Their primary worry was where to get food, shelter, and clothing first.

Somewhere we’ve lost the American Dream for the masses and replaced it with the American Dream for the Political and Financial elite. Did I hear Benny say, “let them eat cake?”

Market Timing Model Says Buy!

My market timing model issued a BUY yesterday. The 1276 level in the S&P500 seems to be a very powerful area and I’ve added to my positions at 1276 the last time a BUY signal was flashed. Only time will tell if this was a wise move.

In other news, my new genetic algorithmic component to the timing model is showing that the market will firm up the further gold falls and as long as interest rates on the 13 week T-bills stabilize around here. Another component of the model looks at international markets and things seem to be firming up there as well.

Still though, my monte carlo model shows that volatility is expected to spike in the coming weeks, just in time for September.

In other non-market related news, I spend a lot of time in Twitter these days, you can follow me there if you like.

Ok, back to work.

Lost Money In The Markets? Throw Stones At The Exchanges!

Looks like investors are angry after their stock market hits a losing streak, the largest in 18 years. Some say its because of fears that the ruling coalition might collapse but I suspect its something else.

So how do you take out your anger after market collapses and your life savings vanish?

Pakistan stock investors threw stones and smashed windows at Karachi’s stock exchange to protest the worst losing streak in at least 18 years, prompting intervention by the police and paramilitary officers.

There had to be another reason for all this volatility and reading further I found it.  In my opinion, the main reason why the Pakistani market is crashing is that foreign investors are fleeing.

Foreign investors slashed their spending on Pakistani stocks to $62.2 million in the 11 months ended May 31, from $1.76 billion a year earlier, according to data compiled by the central bank. [via Bloomberg]

Looks like Musharraf had a lot of friends with money and strangely I feel like throwing a rock at Greenspan!

The Frozen Economy & You

I hear this type of conversation amongst my struggling friends as well.

Heat or food? Gas or electricity? Medicine or mortgage payments? What to give up? What to cut back? The conversations were everywhere. In the supermarket, I heard one man tell another: “When I was a kid, you woke up, went into the bathroom, and broke up the ice in the toilet. Now my kids will have to do the same. America is moving backward.” [via Business Week]

It’s a sad state of affairs but we’re too blame, we elected socialist leeches and idiots to power.   Only true capitalism can save us now.

Unmitigated Disaster

You have to love Jim Rogers and the interviews he gives Bloomberg. He’s a wise man that comes across as a cranky at times but we should listen carefully to what he has to say.

“I don’t know where these guys get the audacity to take our money, taxpayer money, and buy stock in Fannie Mae,” Rogers, 65, said in an interview from Singapore. “So we’re going to bail out everybody else in the world. And it ruins the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and it makes the dollar more vulnerable and it increases inflation.” [via Bloomberg]

Commenter and blogger Kevin H posted this reply to my $5 Trillion Dollars of Debt post yesterday, “How in the world is the U.S. going to bail Fannie and Freddie out of 5 trillion? We are already in debt 9.5 trillion dollars.

Yes, the question is “how” and “can we?” Stay long Euros, Gold, and Oil for now.

$5 Trillion Dollars of Debt

I knew the debt level of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was high but I didn’t realize it was that high. Fannie and Freddie both sit on $5 trillion dollars of debt, with about $979 billion of that debt owned foreign countries, especially Asian countries. You better believe that the US Government is going to bail these two enterprises out, and fast.

A failure of these two enterprises would be the beginning of a global depression and spell doom for the US Dollar and our superpower status. Of course the bag holders for this bail out will be the American Taxpayer who’s under a lot of financial pressure right now.

“At the end of the day, the holders of agency debt are significantly in overseas hands and foreign central banks. They had to do this because confidence could weaken further, and that would be very, very bad for the dollar,” she [Sharada Selvanathan] said. [via Washington Post]

So its best to stay short the USD, be long Gold, Oil, and currencies. I can’t believe I’m saying this but I might go long the loony.

IndyMac’s Failure, Who’s To Blame?

The largest blow up of a bank happened last week and fingers are being pointed in Washington. It seems that the blame game is rather fierce in DC these days, with fingers pointed to speculators for high oil prices, Alan Greenspan for creating the Real Estate Bubble, and Ben Bernanke for creating massive inflation. You never read about this when times are good and people are gorging themselves on “easy money.”

Remember this, there’s no such thing as easy money, anywhere. If it looks easy, its probably attached with some hidden risk somewhere. So now with IndyMac’s failure this past Friday, tied directly to the subprime mortgage market, the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) is blaming NY Democrat Chuck Schumer for creating a bank run panic after he expressed concerns about IndyMac’s viability.

OTS announced Friday that it was taking over the $32 billion IndyMac and transferring control to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – and the agency pointed the finger directly at Schumer for the failure, accusing him of sparking a bank run by releasing a letter that “expressed concerns about IndyMac’s viability.”

“In the following 11 business days, depositors withdrew more than $1.3 billion from their accounts,” the OTS said in a statement announcing the California-based lender’s takeover. The statement included a quote from OTS Director John Reich saying, “Although this institution was already in distress, I am troubled by any interference in the regulatory process.” [via CNN]

I’m glad he expressed his concern but this is just the tip of the iceberg for bank failures. I believe that we’ll see only a fraction of the bank failures we saw back in 80′s with the Savings and Loans scandal, but the damage will be massive.

As more and more money gets concentrated in fewer banks, you can expect any future failures to be spectacular and destructive. I wonder who’ll be to blame when the next bank fails.

Stock Market Goes On Sale

Say what you want about Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, but he’s a smart man. I could help but laugh when I read this line from an interview with The Street.com (emphasis mine):

“I haven’t been this bullish in years,” says Kiyosaki. “What a buying opportunity. … The stock market goes on sale, and everybody runs away.”
But, he’s excited probably only for a short time.

“When the market comes back, I go back to sleep,” he says.

I too share his sentiment but I managed to pull money out near the top and buy near the market lows (I hope). As of yesterday I started my program of rotating my cash and bond holdings back into the market and plan to be 95% in stocks by December 2008.

Oil at $139? DOW down 300 Points? Screw That! Today Was A BUY!

My market timing model was in full swing today and it flashed a BUY. Today was a lot of carnage and I suspect that we could go even lower from here. I hope everyone has their stops in place, :).

Normally I wouldn’t move any money in the market until the low at 1276 on the S&P500 is taken out. Still, the market timing model is a nice short term trading model too.

If you went long when the model issued a BUY signal and then closed the position and simultaneously went short with the SELL signal flashed, you’d be sitting on some decent short term gains as my little chart shows. The danger in doing this is that the model was designed to issue BUY/SELL signals for a longer time frame and you could easily get a BUY signal and end up with negative returns in the short term.

How Would You Build A US Dollar Model?

Its an understatement that the US Dollar is in a downtrend.  Its pretty obvious which direction the greenback is going from the chart below.

My question to readers is this: if you were building a neural net model to tell you when to go LONG for a sustained rally and rebound in the US Dollar, what kind of data inputs would you use for your model and why?