$SLV seems to have tricked us after bouncing and closing above the 50 WMA last week. That's good news and it appears SLV will be gaining steam this week as it rides up trend channel. If $SLV closes above the 50 WMA this week, then I'd see we're in the clear until we're not.
$SLV is acting strangely again. A warning flag came up in my model that the trend might be breaking down in this ETF BUT it sure looked that way back in July 2009 as well. Then it broke below the channel but stopped at the 50 week moving average. This time it poked and closed below the 50 week moving average.
Is $SLV tricking us again? What do you think? If you leave a comment, I'll reveal my answer…
$RFV was a winner for me. In fact it was my largest winner in the bunch, clocking in over 12% or about +3R. However, it got taken out via a stop on 1/21/10 as the market looked like it started to rollover.
Rules of the trend system: Always use stops and strict money management. Let the market decide when its time to quit.
I got taken out in FDM yesterday after riding a bit of its trend. I made money on this one, about 8.5%. Not too shabby.
And yesterday out of a total of 5 positions. One position was a good gain (FDM) but the others added up to slight losses; add them all up and I'm down only $5. I'm not upset, just satisfied my system is working. Of course I'd hope for more of a gain but sometimes break even is just as good.
As I wrote in my Feb 2009 post, “Where’s the Market Bottom,” I believe the real estate and equity markets have more downside coming. Now someone’s IYR model , is setting up for a possible test of its March lows. Hehehe.
I built a fast IYR model myself using Stock Neuromaster to see if I can match his “box” model. My model show a short signal generated on 4/1/09 for 4/2’s open, which remains short this morning.
Overall I’m hoping that we see a test of the equity market bottom and maybe even a break of it, I want to go balls to wall long with the remaining 401k monies have I have. Only time will tell what happens.
I’ve been working on updating my various stock and forex models, both in Rapidminer and other platforms, and just built a test model for EWS using Stock Neuromaster. It seemed that it had some false signals at the most recent bottom but managed to catch a small leg up. I wonder if it’ll go long again or stay out of the market as shown!
Remember, the signals tell you to enter or exit at the next day’s open from where they are generated.