$SLV seems to have tricked us after bouncing and closing above the 50 WMA last week. That's good news and it appears SLV will be gaining steam this week as it rides up trend channel. If $SLV closes above the 50 WMA this week, then I'd see we're in the clear until we're not.
$SLV is acting strangely again. A warning flag came up in my model that the trend might be breaking down in this ETF BUT it sure looked that way back in July 2009 as well. Then it broke below the channel but stopped at the 50 week moving average. This time it poked and closed below the 50 week moving average.
Is $SLV tricking us again? What do you think? If you leave a comment, I'll reveal my answer…
$RFV was a winner for me. In fact it was my largest winner in the bunch, clocking in over 12% or about +3R. However, it got taken out via a stop on 1/21/10 as the market looked like it started to rollover.
Rules of the trend system: Always use stops and strict money management. Let the market decide when its time to quit.
I got taken out in FDM yesterday after riding a bit of its trend. I made money on this one, about 8.5%. Not too shabby.
And yesterday out of a total of 5 positions. One position was a good gain (FDM) but the others added up to slight losses; add them all up and I'm down only $5. I'm not upset, just satisfied my system is working. Of course I'd hope for more of a gain but sometimes break even is just as good.
I went long these ETF's back on 11/19 (as well as others I will post about). These holdings are part of the AAII ETF portfolio and I was experimenting with them. These do not fit my new trend strategy but they've been performing well and I'm making profit. Profit is profit, right?
Note: I accidently annotated the entry date on the charts wrong, it should be 11/19 and not 11/13.
As I wrote in my Feb 2009 post, “Where’s the Market Bottom,” I believe the real estate and equity markets have more downside coming. Now someone’s IYR model , is setting up for a possible test of its March lows. Hehehe.
I built a fast IYR model myself using Stock Neuromaster to see if I can match his “box” model. My model show a short signal generated on 4/1/09 for 4/2′s open, which remains short this morning.
Overall I’m hoping that we see a test of the equity market bottom and maybe even a break of it, I want to go balls to wall long with the remaining 401k monies have I have. Only time will tell what happens.
I’ve been working on updating my various stock and forex models, both in Rapidminer and other platforms, and just built a test model for EWS using Stock Neuromaster. It seemed that it had some false signals at the most recent bottom but managed to catch a small leg up. I wonder if it’ll go long again or stay out of the market as shown!
Remember, the signals tell you to enter or exit at the next day’s open from where they are generated.
I entered a small position in EWH yesterday after my newly updated neural net model said “go short young man.” So I went short @ $10.95 and currently sit on a small loss. Based on how the index futures are behaving this morning, my stop might just get triggered. We’ll see.
Update: Sure enough I was stopped out at the open. Look at EWH go. :)
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) come in so many flavors these days that it’s hard to keep track of them all. I really like them because it gives the average investor exposure to different asset classes such as currencies, commodities, and emerging markets. The beauty of ETF’s is that you can usually buy them for your 401K or IRA accounts thereby giving you the ability to diversify very broadly.
Currently there are 8 major currency ETF’s available that I know of and they are:
Sorry to all you South African Rand and Brazilian Real traders, you’ll have to stick with a currency brokerage account for now.
Update: Soren has kindly updated the currency ETF list in the comment section; it goes to show you that it truly is hard to keep track of them all! As a special shout-out, take a moment to sign up for Soren’s Stock Tweet @ Twitter, it truly is a piece of genius.
I’m busy going through my list of stocks in my neural net program looking for buy and sell signals. My actual trades in XOM and EWZ have been profitable and I’m looking forward to doing some more trading this week. The beauty of this system is its simplicity. Every morning I just update the models with new price data and then click the prediction button. It tells me to BUY, SELL, or HOLD at the next market open. When used with a good stop loss and risk management system, this program is one helluva great swing/position trading tool.
Here are a few signals of stock positions I’m holding:
FYI: My posts may become erratic over the next few weeks as I’m busy with work and a crazy light rail design submission.
I sold my position in EWZ yesterday after it rocketed over $80 yesterday and started a slow decline back down. This is counter to what my EWZ neural net model says but the Forex Trader suddenly emerged and screamed, “see profit, take it now!” I ended up with a 2.3R gain instead of 3R but I’m happy nonetheless.
The EWZ neural net model still remains long going into today’s open and with my luck EWZ will blow past $81 today! :)
