My market timing model issued a weak BUY signal yesterday and I choose to ignore it and not inform my members. I’m interested in any BUY signals below the 1310 level for the S&P500 and will let my members know when that happens.
If you were a Neural Market Trends member, you would’ve received my email early Saturday morning with a warning that my Market Timing model issued a SELL on Friday. Yes a SELL. Once again the model is vindicated as we started the trading week with two days down, yesterday being extremely down!
So what can I say? It sure looks like we had a Bear Market rally and it looks like the trend the overall market trend is DOWN now. I’m glad I’m still 50% in cash and I won’t be interested in any buying until the model issues a BUY below S&P500 level 1310.
If you want to sign up as a member (Free for now) to get a weekly snapshot of my market timing BUY/SELL signals, you have to do it by midnight on Fridays to get the email over the weekend. I got a lot of emails last week from new members who signed up on Sunday, a day too late because I usually email members early Saturday morning.
The global market are getting hammered, things are looking ugly out there. I’m so glad that I’m mostly in cash and bonds right now, all thanks to my timing model. If you’ve been a reader of my newsletter (free to members) then you would’ve known that I got out of the market in mid December. The sell signals my model gave me in October and December have saved my ass from a whole world of hurt.
It looks like all the time I spent building neural net and genetic algorithm models has paid off.
I will be making changes to my membership and no longer toll gating any posts. From now this point forward, I will be charging for my market timing newsletter. The newsletter will be mailed out to paid members every week.
I’m still at the spa enjoying the recent market insanity. It’s days like these where I’m reminded how awesome my S&P500 Timing model is (members get my weekly report). I’m glad I took its advice and sold my major holdings in mid December (and October) and moved my money into more defensive assets like bonds and cash.
Still though, the timing model actually issued a BUY signal today (see image), so it looks like we might have formed an interim bottom. I’m debating making a small buy here but I haven’t made up my mind, I sometimes don’t act on all the BUY signals the model gives me but I religiously follow its SELL signals.
Who knows which way the market will go but if it breaks down from here you can bet that 1250 will be the S&P500′s next stop.
PS: I created this model using Rapidminer and TraderXL Pro.
Please see the link to the PDF document of this week’s Neural Market Trends Newsletter.
As promised, see the PDF link below for my entire 2007 Forex trading log. These were actual tickets and trades generated for my $100 Forex Experiment. You can see I had a few ups and downs but my trading equity grew over 50% this year, amazing!!!
To all my members, thank you! I want to wish you and your families a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!� This week’s newsletter edition is below!
I think I’m going to go back to the newsletter format, it allows me more creative control. I’m also debating not doing a monthly subscription fee but rather a yearly donation. Let me know if you like the PDF format of the newsletter.
For the first time in a very long time, I made changes to my managed 401k allocations. I did for several reasons, the smell of a dying real estate bubble was getting too bad, the markets have been trying to take out their old highs but the subprime mess and the rising spector of inflation (gee there’s been inflation?) has been taking out their momentum
My guess is that we’re in for a big correction.
Next week’s Forex and Futures Forecast is as follows:
It looks like old trends are reestablishing themselves except for the Brits and the Aussies!
I’m going to be publishing longer term trend confirmation results for Forex and Gold after I produce the first set of RapidMiner tutorials.
The bail out continues on Wall Street and volatility dropped for the week. We’ll likely see gains in the markets as the volatility drops but don’t rule out more selloffs as the year winds down. Remember, high volatility begets high volatility!
Good Morning! The neural net forecast for next week of the following currencies and commodities is:
It’s an interesting mixed picture.  Could the USD be strengthening as more banks start lowering their rates? Gold, however, is forecast to rise.
