Category Archives: Neural Nets

This is the category for anything related to neural net models or Rapid Miner (formerly named YALE).

Modeling Gold Trends

Posted on by
Reply

I’ve been busy rebuilding my Gold neural net model over the past few days with new data and inputs using the new version of Rapidminer.  It’s the same model I used to write my published Futures Magazine article and tinkering with it should give me new insight into the current Gold trend.  This is particularly important to me because I want to know if any future pull backs in Gold is a buying opportunity or something else.  I predominately use my trend models to find buying opportunities and this works great in Forex and Metals.

Many people I correspond with thought the Gold market was crashing when the price broke through $750 recently.  I seem to remember a lot option acitivity around the $600 level as well.  My old Gold model told me otherwise and I paid a visit to my Gold dealer earlier this month.  I’m curious to see if it will tell me to visit my Gold dealear again in October.

Genetic Modeling The Stock Market

Posted on by
5

The one nice thing about Genetic Algorithmic stock market models is that they evolve with new market data. The bad thing about them is that they’re a pain in the ass to create.  My current GA model is surprisingly simple and works in conjunction with my S&P500 Volatility Timing Model.

Although its highly secret, what I can tell you is that I use the Genetik Solver Excel Addin.  I specifically use it because its free and integrates with MS Excel.  Its a bit clunky to use but if you read my tutorial on it, you should be able to learn it in no time.

I take a snapshot of market data in real time using the input variables from my volatility model and use the Genetik Solver to analyze those data points.  I make sure to grab the max and min data points for each variable, load it into the Solver, enter my population size, cross over probability, mutation, and then run it.

The answers I get from running this analysis helps me understand at what levels my input variables (to the timing model) should rise or fall to for things to return to a state of calm.  From this I can better understand the current market internals and  what things to look for as the market evolves in real time.

Right now my Genetic Algorithmic stock market model tells me that in order for the markets to return to a calmer state,  Gold has to drop (no-brainer) and T-bills have to increase in yield to the 2% level.  What wasn’t so obvious was that fact the technology sector must remain fairly flat and the Nikkei 225 has to rally like crazy.  If Gold sits tight, T-Bill yields weaken, and you have a rally in the tech sector, watch out!  At least for for this week.

:)

Forex Scorecard

Posted on by
1

I went long the AUDUSD pair last night with the same intent to build a longer term position in it. My belief is that this pair will go to parity with the USD this year or early 2009. I’m still long EURUSD and sitting on a nice profit; I’ll be adding to it on pullbacks, which it looks like might be today.

For all my neural net aficionados, the trend remains up for both these pairs.

Here’s the current score:

  • EURUSD +124 pips
  • AUDUSD +7 pips

Oil at $139? DOW down 300 Points? Screw That! Today Was A BUY!

Posted on by
6

My market timing model was in full swing today and it flashed a BUY. Today was a lot of carnage and I suspect that we could go even lower from here. I hope everyone has their stops in place, :).

Normally I wouldn’t move any money in the market until the low at 1276 on the S&P500 is taken out. Still, the market timing model is a nice short term trading model too.

If you went long when the model issued a BUY signal and then closed the position and simultaneously went short with the SELL signal flashed, you’d be sitting on some decent short term gains as my little chart shows. The danger in doing this is that the model was designed to issue BUY/SELL signals for a longer time frame and you could easily get a BUY signal and end up with negative returns in the short term.

Help Me Build A Marketing Timing Widget!

Posted on by
3

Since the ATS project is floating around in la-la land, I want to move forward with my next project, a market timing WordPress widget. I’m looking for a PHP/Wordpress widget developer that can build me this: nmt-market-timing-widget (PDF)

I’m willing to pay for it but you must sign a NDA to get the formula that drives the timing model. Email me your quote if you are interested; its not a big project and I suspect a smart developer can bang this out in a few days.

How Would You Build A US Dollar Model?

Posted on by
10

Its an understatement that the US Dollar is in a downtrend.  Its pretty obvious which direction the greenback is going from the chart below.

My question to readers is this: if you were building a neural net model to tell you when to go LONG for a sustained rally and rebound in the US Dollar, what kind of data inputs would you use for your model and why?

Apple Inc, (AAPL) Neural Net Model

Posted on by
14

I built a quick neural net model for Apple Inc (AAPL) and found it to be a pretty good at predicting price direction. Reserving 15 days for testing, and testing the signals for the past 30 days, the model had a 22.47% rate of return (gross).

Right now the model has issued a SELL signal for last Friday’s open and remains short.

I hope that my readers have downloaded the 14 day trail version of this software and are testing it out for themselves. Check out my videos on how to use this program and create your very own stock neural net models in minutes.

ATS Development Meeting This Week!

Posted on by
2

It seems that every year in April and May I get extremely busy with work and my professional socieites! I guess everyone wants to get as much done before the summer break and the same goes for me!

This coming Thursday I’m having my second meeting with the ATS team to see 1) who’s on board, 2) what the end game is for the ATS, 3) answer any questions they have, and 4) come up with with a project plan with milestones. My main goal is to have to have prototype ATS up and running by end of summer that focuses on Stocks first. If its successful then we’ll be adding in a Forex option, Genetic Algorithms, and Neural Nets.

I ask my readers to please be patient as I expect posting to become intermittent as the ATS project kicks off. I suspect it will take up a lot of my free time as I make my dream become a reality.  The best way to be alerted to any new posts when I do check in is to subscribe to my RSS feed and/or follow my Twitter postings.

I will keep everyone apprised of its progress and if the team is willing, share a few “sneak peaks” on how its shaping up!

Oh, I’ll be hosting the next Rapidminer Meetup this June and if no one shows up this time, I’ll drop it completely! That will be your loss, not mine!

Time To Buy The Malaysia iShares?

Posted on by
Reply

Actually its a time to SELL any positions you have in the Malaysia iShares (EWM). My neural net model issued a SELL signal for today’s open. Your estimated gross return for the most recent position is about 1.6% (not incl fees and commissions) based on yesterday’s close.

I really like EWM and have traded her several times in the past and I’m looking for the next BUY signal from the neural net model to go long. The trick I learned to trading EWM successfully is to always use stops and trailing stops, because EWM can change in an instant!

I hope that my readers have downloaded the 14 day trail version of this software and are testing it out for themselves. Check out my videos on how to use this program and create your very own stock neural net models in minutes.