Category Archives: NFL

Actual vs Predicted Spreads NFL Football Neural Net Model

Posted on July 15, 2009 by Tom

As you can see, the model is pretty good at determining if the home or visiting team will win (a negative sign means the home team wins) but the predicted spreads are way off relative to actual spreads. Continue reading →

Posted in Gambling, Neural Nets, NFL, Sports | Tagged , , , | 6 Comments

Predicting Winners in Football

Posted on July 13, 2009 by Tom

Now that I understand various data relationships and can determine the winners relatively well, the next step, and perhaps the hardest now, is determining the ranking system. Continue reading →

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Thoughts on Ranking Football Teams

Posted on July 8, 2009 by Tom

Now the trick is to develop this ranking system without backfitting data. How do you do this? It’s not easy but the route to use in my mind is to use neural net clustering to first identify if any pieces of data seem to drive the point spread. Continue reading →

Posted in Gambling, Neural Nets, NFL, Sports | 8 Comments

Ranking NFL Teams with Neural Nets – 2

Posted on July 7, 2009 by Tom

I’ve come across some very interesting, albeit very initial, relationships in NFL data. The actual point spread between teams seem to have a strong relationship with the defense’s pass interception ability, the attempted rushing by the defense, and sack yards … Continue reading →

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Ranking NFL Teams with Neural Nets

Posted on July 7, 2009 by Tom

If you had to build a neural net model to help you rank NFL teams, what bits of data would you want to include in your input data? Pass Attempts vs Completed? Yards Rushed? Score Differential? Time of Possession? What? … Continue reading →

Posted in Gambling, Neural Nets, NFL, Sports | 4 Comments