Comments for Neural Market Trends

Comment on Rapidminer 5.0 Video Tutorial #6 by Tom

Tom — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 01:32:22 +0000

Hi scbhush, you can buy me a beer sometime. =)

Comment on Rapidminer 5.0 Video Tutorial #6 by scbhush

scbhush — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 21:11:15 +0000

HI Tom,
I do not know how to thanx you. This is great help to work on rapid miner
This is the thing I was waiting from long time.

look forward tutorial 7,8,9,10.
Thank you in advance.

regards

Comment on Rapidminer 5.0 Video Tutorial #6 by Sven

Sven — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 15:16:01 +0000

Hi Tom,
Thank you for your quick answer! And your right, i forgot about the hidden markov process in neural networks – silly me :)
The idea of generating a future signal is a great idea and i will try that !
Looking forward to your tutorial #7 :)
Sven

Comment on Rapidminer 5.0 Video Tutorial #6 by Tom

Tom — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 13:54:30 +0000

Hi Sven,
Forecasting times series, especially for markets, is a dicey business and what works today won't work in a week or a month. Its easy to build a time series model in RM for a given stock symbol and train it but, how do you predict tomorrow's close?
That's always been troubling because you typically train your model with OHLCV attributes (where C – Close is your label) and then prediction set (out of sample) needs to have OHLV for the next day to predict your Close. But If YOU don't know what the OHLV is for the next day, how can you predict the close?
One way to do it is to train the model to issue a BUY or SELL signal (binomial label) for t-1 (you want the signal to generate the day before) on training data that contains OHLCVS (S is for signal, not "sucks") and then predict the signal for the out of sample set sing OHLCV.
I hope this helps. Thanks for the kind words about my tutorials and thanks for reading.

Comment on Rapidminer 5.0 Video Tutorial #6 by Sven

Sven — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 13:28:46 +0000

Hi Tom,
First, i wanna thank you for your great tutorials on rapidminer 5.0!
I am really looking forward to your time series tutorials as i tried to figure out myself – with no success until now :( – how i can forecast time series (for at least one day in the future) with a neural network. So my question would be, how do i get rapidminer to show me the prediction for (at least) the next day? I tried to fool around a bit with the "impute missing values" but the results seem to be strange…
All in all, keep on working buddy, i love your site :)

Comment on Working On A Time Series Tutorial by Tom

Tom — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 01:07:42 +0000

@Bob: This is nothing to get excited about. The ANN generated a trend curve based on the above data series set, its not forecasting anything. The data is from the past and its nothing more than a nonlinear trend line based on that data set. I'll elaborate more when I record the tutorial.

Comment on Working On A Time Series Tutorial by Bob

Bob — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 23:21:21 +0000

I'm very curious about the figure you posted. It appears to me that either 1) your model has absolutely amazing predicative capabilities and you will be very wealthy very soon, or 2) your model is using future information to estimate the past.

At the time/index ~240 the close reaches it's lowest point, however the trend line is already sloping up suggesting amazing predictive accuracy or extreme data snooping bias.

Please elaborate!

Comment on Neural Market Trends Upgrades & Changes by Tom

Tom — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 17:55:00 +0000

@Digital Dude: if the new video tutorials are an indication then maybe =)

Comment on Neural Market Trends Upgrades & Changes by Digital Dude

Digital Dude — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 17:30:57 +0000

Hi Tom,
I like your new web site theme… Cut out the superfluous crap and focus on the market and AI/machine learning…
You are going to focus on the market and machine learning yea? ;^)
Cordially,
-Digital Dude-

"Change is easy, except for the "change" part!" -Alan Kay-

Comment on 20 Million Marks by Tom

Tom — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 11:00:15 +0000

@Stefan: Yes I saw that too. I find the history of money and economies fascinating. Despite all the crap we hear here about how great things are, I ask myself: Is this sustainable? No, it isn't.