Deon posted a request to form a EURUSD NN development model and then trading team. I think its a great idea and have decided to open up the project collaboration site again if he wants to form the group and upload data as he proposed. If Deon emails me, I’ll help coordinate the access to the project collaboration site and give access to interested parties.

Since the ATS project is floating around in la-la land, I want to move forward with my next project, a market timing WordPress widget. I’m looking for a PHP/WordPress widget developer that can build me this: nmt-market-timing-widget (PDF)

I’m willing to pay for it but you must sign a NDA to get the formula that drives the timing model. Email me your quote if you are interested; its not a big project and I suspect a smart developer can bang this out in a few days.

Its an understatement that the US Dollar is in a downtrend.  Its pretty obvious which direction the greenback is going from the chart below.

My question to readers is this: if you were building a neural net model to tell you when to go LONG for a sustained rally and rebound in the US Dollar, what kind of data inputs would you use for your model and why?

I was surprised yesterday when I came back from a meeting to see that my proprietary market timing model issued a SELL.  I advise taking some profits here and being vigilant for another possible market sell off.

I built a quick neural net model for Apple Inc (AAPL) and found it to be a pretty good at predicting price direction. Reserving 15 days for testing, and testing the signals for the past 30 days, the model had a 22.47% rate of return (gross).

Right now the model has issued a SELL signal for last Friday’s open and remains short.

I hope that my readers have downloaded the 14 day trail version of this software and are testing it out for themselves. Check out my videos on how to use this program and create your very own stock neural net models in minutes.

Actually its a time to SELL any positions you have in the Malaysia iShares (EWM). My neural net model issued a SELL signal for today’s open. Your estimated gross return for the most recent position is about 1.6% (not incl fees and commissions) based on yesterday’s close.

I really like EWM and have traded her several times in the past and I’m looking for the next BUY signal from the neural net model to go long. The trick I learned to trading EWM successfully is to always use stops and trailing stops, because EWM can change in an instant!

I hope that my readers have downloaded the 14 day trail version of this software and are testing it out for themselves. Check out my videos on how to use this program and create your very own stock neural net models in minutes.

This is good news, my Timing Model volatility indicator is actually dropping. It peaked at 2.9 on 3/17 and has steadily dropped to 1.79 as of yesterday’s close. This confirms my cautious belief that the market has bottomed but we’re not out of the woods yet. Everything hinges on what Gold prices do in the next few weeks.

Right now the market is driven by what the Fed is doing and will do. The best indicator to watch on how people react to the Fed’s policies and decisions is Gold’s price. Gold prices and the S&P500 are almost an inverse relationship and the higher the price of Gold, the weaker the S&P500 is.

In case my readers are wondering, my neural net model for Exxon Mobil Corporation is still flashing a long HOLD. The position is showing a loss right now and so far I have not seeing any changes in the signal alerts.

In my Stock NeuroMaster Video Tutorial 2 I show my readers how to update new data for the Exxon Mobil (XOM) neural net model we built in the first Stock NeuroMaster Video Tutorial. Sound problems have been fixed!

You can download the Stock NeuroMaster program here to play along with these tutorials and sign up for my RSS feed! You can subscribe either in a feed reader or get my posts by email!

I’m uploading my first Stock NeuroMaster Video Tutorial using Wink, which works pretty well. The sound is OK but could be better and I’m beginning to think that my sound problem has to do with my sound card.

I guess its time to buy a new laptop and not a DELL!

Update: I reloaded a newer version of the tutorial with better sound!  I figured it out, I have record my audio per frame and it work out wonderfully!

If you want to play along, here’s the direct download link for Stock NeuroMaster program and here’s a PDF of the Stock NeuroMaster tutorial (without sound) for your reference.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has been thrashing around for the past few weeks on some high volatility. One moment the price of oil is at $90, the next its at $111, and now its around $100. Although XOM is mostly a refiner, the price of oil affects its profit margins and in turn the expectations of investors/traders.

Loading up my Exxon Mobil neural net model this morning I find that its giving us a BUY signal for this morning’s open. This neural net model has been pretty profitable over the last 60 bars, its up over 11% (not including commissions/fees).

I’ve been using Stock NeuroMaster since the beginning of the year and have been very happy with it.  I owe my readers a tips and tricks post on how I use it generate these BUY and SELL signals.  If I have time I’ll write up the post over lunch!

I’ve been riding General Electric (GE) up and down for the past year and it looks like it might finally be heading back up. My GE neural net model gave a solid BUY signal on 3/17/08 for the following open and a HOLD signal at yesterday’s close. This will work out nicely if a market bottom was put in place on 3/17. If.

Now I have to check my EME, C, XOM, and NE models!