Building an asset trend following system is quite easy to do if you’ve read my tutorials. You gather your data, assign trend values (UP, DOWN), and then run it through a classification algorithm like YALE’s IBK operator. Doing this is what some people call Fuzzy trend analysis and its quite easy to do if [...]

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I bought a Monte Carlo Simulation for Excel this week and started to play around with it for my S&P500 Volatility Timing Model. Boy am I having fun! I ran the probability of a Financial Asteroid (FA) event happening in a Gaussian distribution world. Based on the simulation, we have a 0.04% chance [...]

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The inspiration for my S&P500 Volatility Timing model came from rereading portions of Mandelbrot’s book, The (Mis)Behavior of Markets, and trolling around the Internet for Nassim Taleb’s research work on risk. I think both [...]

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Today I wanted to share with you a part of the algorithmic back end to my ETF Trend System. Note, I said “part“, I’m not giving away all my secrets. It’s written completely in Excel, incredibly simple, and is a macro that you can import. The system works by using something called linear [...]

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Can an upset to something called punctuated equilibrium (PE) explain the sudden emergence or death of trends? What truly interests me in trend following is the moment a financial asteroid hits the trend. What are the events or sudden changes in the financial environment that will allow some trends to die and cause others to evolve?

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