Black or Golden Swan Coming?

Posted on Fr 17 April 2009 in misc • 1 min read

  • Trends tags: [] meta: _edit_last: '5' dsq_thread_id: '2384026087' author:

    My models are indicating that another big market event is looming on the horizon.  It's too early to tell if it will be a Black (down) or Golden (up) swan type of event but we should be ready to go long or short the bejezus out the market.

    Could this be a bull market breakout or just a resumption of the bear market trend lower?  Only time will tell I guess.

    On a completely different note, here's a chart og the S&P500 closing price vs the 10 day lagged volatility.  Notice the big spikes back in 2003?  Notice the bigger spikes recently?

    sp500-vs-10-day-market-vol-lag-041609