I was driving to the Amtrak station yesterday morning and heard on Bloomberg Radio that the 30 Year Bond Yield fell below 2% for the first time.
FOR. THE. FIRST. TIME. EVER!
That’s utterly nuts and if past history is an indicator, the bond market is flashing a wicked recession coming. Of course things right now are pretty good (except for some manufacturing weakness), but the bond indicator is usually a 12-18 month leading indicator, so we’ll keep and eye on things.
What gives me pause on whether this is a recession coming or just panic is the rate of change of the yield in the last few days/weeks have been. This is almost like a blow off move and might just be panic because of the stupid Trump Trade War with China. Who knows but I’m thinking it might be time to build up some reserves and pay off debt. Maybe this is why Ray Dalio went long gold? Me? I’m going long Bitcoin.
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