! 'S&P500: Catching Falling Knives'

Posted on Sa 01 März 2008 in misc • 1 min read

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    bear.jpgI make it a habit of "selectively" catching falling knives and yesterday was definitely such a day. I emailed my members yesterday around lunch time yesterday to tell them that my Market Timing model issued a strong BUY signal. Interestingly enough it was at the 1335 level which is right around the 1337 support level I modeled using my Monte Carlo sim.

    Could the market go lower from here? It sure could and I expect it to kiss the 1291 level,just like it nearly touched the 1383 level earlier this week. So why BUY now? Why not wait till the knife hits the floor?

    Well its true that this type of investing is counter intuitive. No one can every pick the bottom exactly and I'd rather buy quality mutual funds and stocks that are being sold in panic then waiting for a chart bottom to form. It seems nutty and insane but it works for me.


    I reiterate my downside targets from here: 1291, then 1245, then 1191. You don't want to know the levels below that because they are downright scary!!!