Tag Currency Pairs

Posts: 3

Forex Positions

Good Morning! There was further sell off in the EURUSD and AUDUSD pair last night as the USD gained strength. It's just follow through from the better than expected ISM report yesterday. I believe these market machinations will be short lived and expect the pairs to reverse and head back up in short order.

In the meantime, I'm holding 6 positions in these pairs (4 in EURUSD and 2 in AUDUSD). Right now I'm down 48 and 18 pips respectively, with my largest single loss at 75 pips in the EURUSD pair.

It's times like these I must remain true to my trading plan and stick it out. I ran my neural nets this morning and they still indicate UP trends for the EUR and AUD, so I'll have to be patient. The worse case scenario is that I slowly scale out of losing positions. :)

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April Forex Results

I've uploaded my April 2007 $100 Experiment Forex trading results and despite the rough patch I had in the middle of the month, I saw a 5.15% growth in trading equity. My expectancy recovered as well but it's still reeling from my disastrous position sizing debacle! My expectancy for April came in at $0.15.

In April I took 35 trades, 25 of them were winners and 10 losers. My average win was $0.48 vs my average loss of $0.68.

I'm holding a total of four positions going into May, 2 in EURUSD and 2 in AUDUSD. When I close them out, I'll detail them in May's results sheet. I must make an effort, as part of my neural net analysis for May, to pinpoint the price where I must exit a trade in the event the trend reverses. This will hopefully allow me to truly quantify my Reward vs Risk ratios.

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Currency Relationships

I was inspired to generate three data graphs from my currency models for my readers after reading Maoxian's post on the British Pound. These graphs show price relationships between the Euro and the US Dollar Index, the Euro and the British Pound, and finally the Euro and the Swiss Franc.

Euro/USD Index

EuroUSD Chart


Euro/British Pound

EURGBP Chart

EURGBP Chart

Euro/Swiss Franc

EURCHF Chart

With the exception of the Euro/British Pound, the price relationship between the Euro, USD Index, and the Swiss Franc is pretty much linearly correlated. :)

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Neural Market Trends is the online home of Thomas Ott.