Posts: 1

EWM Redux

Just a few days ago I found some old Neural Market Trends posts that I archived when I switched between blogging platforms. These were mostly about my Stock and Forex trading using AI (aka Machine Learning). While I was more lucky than right w.r.t. to AI in a strong trending market, the posts serves as a good reminder of the longterm investing strategy.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

I traded the EWM ETF back in April 2007. You can see it was in a nice upward trend and was trading last at $11.80.

EWM, 04-25-2007, Trends

Now fast forward just over 12 years and today it's trading $28.51. Note: It was a lot higher than $28.51 a few months ago.

EWM, 05-17-2019, Trends

If it had been AAPL or AMZN then I would've told everyone what a genius I was.

Buy and Hold

Essentially I would've more than doubled my investment over 19 years if I just did a 'Buy' and Hold.' Would it have been risky to buy one ETF or stock over the course of 19 years? Of course. If it had been GE or Ford, well then I'd be kicking myself. If it had been AAPL or AMZN then I would've told everyone what a genius I was.

Buying ETF's would been smart here because they're diversified across a specific sector or group. If I had been really keen on Malaysia for the long term, then this would've made sense. Ideally I should've bought some broad based International ETF like Vanguards VXUS or the similiar.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

It's no use crying over this, the right thing to do is get started now. Find some great low cost ETFs and buy 100 shares in an IRA account. Can't afford 100, then buy 20. The only winning strategy is to do less in the markets and keep your costs low.


Neural Market Trends is the online home of Thomas Ott.