Tag Forex

Posts: 39

Mexican Market Manipulation Monday

What you see here is pure market manipulation by a government, namely ours. In this case, it was done by our President. On Friday May 31st he announces tariffs on goods coming from Mexico because of the border 'crisis.' Then he announces over the weekend that they came to terms and the tariffs were canceled. THEN we find out it was all bullshit (see @ 1:30 min).

USDMXN, Forex Manipulation

In the old days this type of market manipulation was done covertly or with some legitimate sounding cause, but this was brazenly done in the open. I hope you guys caught this because it would've been a beautiful trade for the long side for less than a week's work.

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Why Forex Trading is Frustrating

Or rather, why Forex trading is frustrating at a bucket shop like Oanda. I really don't know which is the right statement to make because I can't be arsed to do the research. I don't have the time. What I can tell you is that my initial reaction when trading Forex is to take the profit when I'm in the money but my stock risk/reward ratio training always thwarts me. Or is thwart the right thing to write?

Forex at Oanda

Last year in November I made a simple trade shorting the EURUSD pair. I thought that the Euro was going to weaken because of all the problems it has with Brexit and Italian Bonds. I also thought the USD was going to strengthen because of consumer confidence and the Fed continuing to gradually raise rates.

In Forex trading, stop hunting is a favorite past time...

I had $125 dollars in my Oanda account and on a whim I just shorted the pair. Oanda is a market maker (aka bucket shop) which allows new Forex traders to open an account with as little money as $10 USD. They make their money by charging you a spread for the currency pair you want to trade. For the EURUSD it's about 1.3 pips and for something like the USDZAR it's like 80 pips. These spreads vary based on market volatility too.

So far, my initial thought on the EURUSD being in a downtrend has been underwhelming.

EURUSD Position

One of the things I've learned when trading with a bucket shop is that they know where your stops are. Stops are a great way to protect your position in case you are wrong. In Forex trading, stop hunting is a favorite past time, so you'll immediately get stopped out and watch the market reverse and go back to being profitable if you weren't stopped out!

I was hamstrung by my risk to reward thoughts.

So I trade without stops and it causes me to take on a lot of risk, too much for my liking these days. I've watched my position go from a small gain of 20+ pips to an easy loss of 200 pips.

EURUSD 2019-01-27
EURUSD 2019-01-27

Above is snapshot my current Oanda trading screen. The little triangle in November is where I went short. You can see that in a few days I was profitable, my gut instinct said, "Take the profit and run!!!" However, my risk to reward training said, "No, you need to make 2X what you risked!," so I stayed put and watched my position go from winning to losing. Then in late December I was profitable again, did I take profit? Nope. I was hamstrung by my risk to reward thoughts.

Fast forward to last week, I almost closed out my position with a 30 pip gain, after surviving a 200+ pip loss on paper. I almost did, but didn't because my risk/reward training thwarted me again! Ugh!

How stupid is all this? On paper I risked 200 pips to make in theory 30 pips. This is why Forex trading is frustrating. You have to take on more risk than what your possible reward could be.

Risk/Reward Thwarting

I really shouldn't say that my training in risk vs reward is thwarting me, it's not. It's warning me. I should listen to it because it's the one thing you should really learn, internalize, and listen too when trading in ANY market. If you risk $1.00 to make $0.50, then you'll go broke eventually. You will be wrong about the market no matter if you use technical analysis, AI, algo-trading, etc. You WILL be wrong and all it takes is being wrong once with bad risk vs reward ratio to blow up your account.

Carry Trade

There's one thing that I completely overlooked with this trade, it's the carry trade. The USD is a higher interest rate than the Euro, so I'm making some money from the interest of holding long USD and shorting EUR. So that's been a plus, but it doesn't negate the potential disaster I could face if the trend suddenly reverses and the EUR goes higher.

The fact that the EURUSD has been bouncing around at this level for the past few months is telling me that the downward trend is possibly over. It's quite conceivable that some bizarre Trump Trade news can wreck havoc for my current position.

What Works; What Doesn't Work

In my "What Works; What Doesn't Work" post, I remember what I wrote for list number 3.

Day trading doesn’t work for me. I blow up all the time. What works for me is swing and trend trading. Do more of that and no day trading.

I've always found that the route to success is truly knowing yourself (what your weaknesses and strengths are) and doing more of what works and less of what doesn't. Maybe I should amend #3 to include Forex or just stick with Passive Investing.

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Adding EURUSD Historical Volatility Predictions

I recently connected my historical volatility prediction processes to the FRED API and pulled in closing data for the Euro. I want to autogenerate currency volatility predictions just like what I do for the stock indicies.

The only problem now is that the training and optimization part takes to long so I have to start breaking up the training/optimization and the auto post autogreneration processes. Plus I'm starting to hit the limit of my laptop and will likely move my training/optimization to a RapidMiner Server on AWS.

On top of all this, I should build a process that will tally how correct the predictions are and then autopost that!

Lots of work to do but it's damn cool!

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The Less I do, The Better I do

Somewhere between 2010 and and 2011 I stopped Forex Trading and stopped stock picking. It was just too much stress and felt very futile. Reviewing the market on a daily basis was exhausting and I even abandoned market timing with my models (the main gensis for this blog)! I took the "less is more" approach after I read A Random Walk Down Wall Street and realized that if you invest for the long term, you win. Short term? Not much so.

Now I just max out my 401k, diversify across asset classes, minimize portfolio turnover as much as possible, and invest in low fee mutual funds when I can. I follow John Bogle's advice and realized that every asset class will have its day in the sun. You just don't know when that'll happen so in the meantime just dollar cost average into it.

In addition to my 401K, I hold a few funds and stocks in my IRA accounts. I tend to not look at them except for once in a while. Yesterday I looked at them.

Here's one of my long term (5 years) winners.

And then there are some that are currently losing.

Time to put them back on my ignore for a while list.

Note: red arrows are where I went long.

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Forex Scorecard

My currency positions pulled back yesterday after the mini USD rally and I decided to take profits. Entry into a position is never the hardest thing to do, its closing that position that can give you sleepless nights! I sold the majority of my holdings in EURUSD and AUDUSD for a profit but my USDCAD position was sold at a slight loss.

I'm still long with a small position in EURUSD and AUDUSD, and short USDCAD. I plan on scaling into these positions as they strengthen and weaken, respectively.

Position Summary:

  • EURUSD +47 pips
  • AUDUSD +16 pips
  • USDCAD +1 pips

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