Tag Futures

Posts: 4

Revisiting the Agriculture Index from 2007 - ($GKX)

Back in 2007 I posted about the Agriculutre Index (GKX) and wondered why it was so strong. At that time I thought it was related to China or how the demand for ethanol was going to save us from globale warming and the effects of man made climate change.

GKX then

GKX, 5/11/2007

Back in 2007 the index was at $252 and fast forward to today, it's at $291ish.

GKX now

GKX, 5/30/2019

So you can see that despite it appreciating about 15% over 12 years, it did a whole lot of nothing considering people went nuts for commodities a few years back. A few days ago it hit the $252 mark, just about where it was when I looked at it back then.

If you look at the weekly chart you can see that the index was trading with it's 50 WMA below its 200 WMA, a bearish sign.

GKX, 5/30/2019, Weekly Chart

That's the thing with the markets, it giveth a bit and taketh a whole lot from suckers. There's a high chance that you're the sucker 90% of the time. The other 10% of the time, you're probably an index fund investor and doing ok.


Commodity Index - At Least The WMA Remains Bullish For Now

Despite the selloff of nearly everything, the CRB index’s 50 WMA is still above its 200 WMA. The 50/200 DMA isn’t and it looks like its not bottoming out anytime so this great index is likely to follow in the footsteps of many other indices soon.

CRB, 12/26/2008

It sure gives me the heebee jeebees seeing almost everything crashing out there.


Agriculture Index - ($GKX)

GKX, 5/11/2007

I worked in my vegetable garden for most of the weekend and with every weed I plucked, the words "Ethanol" and "bio-fuel" kept popping in my head. I know that everywhere I turn, I see and hear about how Ethanol is going to save us from oil dependence and global warming.

Despite my skepticism about Ethanol, I am curious to know what set of this new trend in the Agriculture index? Exactly what happened at the end of 2001? Was it demand from China? Or a sudden fascination with Cocoa? Inquiring minds want to know!

[The Agriculture Index is] An index of agricultural commodity contracts, including Wheat, Red Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, and Orange Juice. Compiled by Goldman Sachs [via traderlog].


Algorithmic Trading

Forex Trend Summary 2

In my old blog, Digital Breakfast, I posted a few times about my desire to build an Automated Trading System (ATS) using Excel. I figured I'd build it in Excel since I know that software the best and conveniently enough, Interactive Brokers offers an API for Excel. Today, I located my old real time ETF Trend Signal system, which is based on statistical performance measures to generate trend signals, and decided to begin additional back end development on it.

I want to explore some ideas I learned over the past few days from C++ Trader and Christian about option neutral trading and even asset mispricings (arbitrage). The more I think about it, what I really want to do is to build an algorithmic trading system first and then an automated trading system. So step one, build an ATS and then step two, build an ATS. :)

[tags]ATS, Algorithms, Trading, System, Excel, Trends, Quantitative, Finance[/tags]


Neural Market Trends is the online home of Thomas Ott.