Tag Stocks

Posts: 64

Autogenerating Support and Resistance Lines for Forex

On the heels of my last post, I've extended those functions to the EURUSD pair. The data starts from this year 2019 and goes through to yesterday. It's actually a pretty neat script as it takes data from Onada and then generates the support and resistance lines for that particular pair. The next step would be to create a buy/sell order in the Oanda Practice Account. Once I do that it's then a matter of writing a trading strategy and testing it in real time.

Everything I'm doing is completely academic and modular right now. I have no idea how really build a Forex Trading Bot or even what strategies to use here. It's more of a "can I do it" endeavor.

Autogenerated Support and Resistance Lines, EURUSD

I'm fully convinced that retail traders that can learn Python can automate their entire trading strategies. Now, the flipside here is if their strategies are worth anything. Just because we can automated trading setups, we must always ask "why do I think I'm right?"


Autogenerating Support and Resistance Lines

Work has been keeping me busy but I found sometime to figure out how to autogenerate support and resistance lines. I cobbled together some code I found online and then made a simple plot. I'm doing this to help me identify the 'zones' in Forex (mostly) and see if I can automate a trading bot to make trades for me.

Here's a chart from two years worth of daily S&P500 closes. On the surface, the lines look pretty decent but the real trick is figuring out what the right lookback period should be. Here my lookback period was 20 days.

There's more work to be done, I have to fix the x-axis to show the dates and get a larger time period. I'm even testing automating this script into some dashboard. Right now you can see a crappy jpg of the EURUSD currency pair on my labs site.

The generic code to build these support and resistance lines is here.


30 Year Bond Yield Wants To Go Lower

Yes I posted this great chart about two weeks ago, but it's amazing what time can do for perspective. The yield is below 2% and wants to go lower. I suspect it will continue to go lower as the Trump Trade War rages on and his stupid policies start to manifest.

30 Year Bond Yield, 09/03/2019

Quite honestly, there needs to be a complete shakeup to our economy. We need to transition to green energies, zero waste, and fundamentally change the old Industrial Revolution ways of thinking and working to the new Technical Revolution ways.

Update 10/07/2019:

It appears that the 30 Year Bond Yield has rebounded back to the 50 DMA but it still wants to go down. This is NOT good in my humble opinion. With all the news about Trump's shady White House dealings, I suspect the yield will slip below 2% again.

30 Year Bond Yield, 10/07/2019

The Trump Trade War is slowly coming home to roost and while we have the lowest umeployment in 50 years, the manufacturing index is dropping like a rock. This is the last call for 'alcohol' at the party, the morning after hangover is going to be a doozy.

Buy Bitcoin is my answer.


30 Year Bond Yield Below 2%!

I was driving to the Amtrak station yesterday morning and heard on Bloomberg Radio that the 30 Year Bond Yield fell below 2% for the first time.


That's utterly nuts and if past history is an indicator, the bond market is flashing a wicked recession coming. Of course things right now are pretty good (except for some manufacturing weakness), but the bond indicator is usually a 12-18 month leading indicator, so we'll keep and eye on things.

30 Year Bond Yield, 08/16/2019

What gives me pause on whether this is a recession coming or just panic is the rate of change of the yield in the last few days/weeks have been. This is almost like a blow off move and might just be panic because of the stupid Trump Trade War with China. Who knows but I'm thinking it might be time to build up some reserves and pay off debt. Maybe this is why Ray Dalio went long gold? Me? I'm going long Bitcoin.


Ray Dalio Goes Long Gold

I just read this CNBC article that Ray Dalio is going long Gold. He believes that the markets are undergoing a paradigm shift and he might be right. The operative word is might. His fund's been taking losses this year but appears to be recovering this July as gold perks up. Why is gold perking up? There's a lot of economic and poltical uncertainity happening right now thanks to Trump, the Chinese Tariffs, and many other things. Plus, we just came out of an insane Real Estate crash 10 years ago and despite everyone saying it's over, it still doesn't feel over to me.

What I will say is that if there's a nasty crash coming, it might be related to our currency. If there's a fiat crash, Gold and Bitcoin will rise sharply. The trillions of debt we generate because of Trump Tax Cuts will one day come home to roost on top of the trillions of debt we generated from the real estate collapse. It's simply unsustainable. The majority of the empires that collapsed, collapsed because of overspending and devaluing their currency. Add in a President that has no clue on how to govern and surrounds himself with people of questionable logic and the damage will be done.

Go long Gold and Bitcoin.