Below you will find pages that utilize the taxonomy term “Monte Carlo”
My friends, these are the times that try men's souls.Â I believe we are starting "the race" to the bottom (or not).
``We're seeing panic all over the markets right now,'' said Javier Barrio, head of equity sales for Spanish clients at Banco BPI SA in Madrid. ``Governments are taking steps to try to reduce investors' fears but confidence is weak.''[via Bloomberg]
The scary thing is that one of my simulations show the S&P500 could reach 700 rather quickly.
We are living in exciting times alright!Â I'm happy that the bailout plan was voted down but my guess is they'll try to get it passed again.Â I'm not happy that 1.2 trillion dollars of market cap vanished yesterday but my Excel monte carlo simulations pointed to a slide to the 1100's for the S&P500 if it broke through 1176.
I'll update my model runs today to see where the S&P500 could go from here.
With everyone scrambling to see how low the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P500 will go, I’ve decided to throw my Monte Carlo simulated price targets into the mix. They’ve been pretty accurate so far and I use this system to find my Forex stops and limit BUY/SELL points. I also use it for work creating complex budget risk Excel spreadsheets but you wouldn’t care about that.
The benefit of the using the Monte Carlo simulation is that you can update the model with new information and get a fresh perspective on where the â€œkeyâ€ price areas in the market and how you can profit from them.
I left work late on Friday because I got distracted running Monte Carlo simulations on our 401k accounts. I'm on a quest to refine my retirement plan of achieving Financial Critical Mass, something I heard about from Bob Brinker many years ago.
Financial Critical Mass is defined as the capital you need in your retirement accounts that will continue to grow after you retire and start withdrawing from it. In other words, your living off the interest of your investments.
I haven't posted price targets in a while but here's a quick one for the S&P500 based on today's close of 1360.
Upside Targets: 1446, 1544
Downside Targets: 1348, 1250, 1152
If you ask me, I think we're going to see another leg down in the markets but what do I know?
I was reading Christian's blog yesterday when he gave the Euro a target of $1.76. Wow, that would be like Financial Armageddon for the USD! You don't need a neural net to tell you that the trend for the Euro is UP and I'm waiting for a pullback to go long. My short term target is $1.60 and it looks like I'll be able to get long around $1.565 if this retracement keeps going this morning!
This is just a quick snapshot to see where the S&P500 is going. My long term S&P500 neural net model initiated a SELL signal on 2/28/08 (for 2/29 open) and maintains the short position for today's open. I guess my Monte Carlo simulation, with its bias to the downside, is being proven correct. I just wonder if my initial downside target of 1291 will be hit.
I mentioned to my members in this past week's Market Timing Report that I would run a Monte Carlo simulation on the S&P500 to see what are the potential upside and downside targets for the S&P500.
The Monte Carlo sim confirmed my suspcisions that the the 1310 to 1340 level was indeed an interim support area and the sim calculated it as 1337. The simulation did indicate a negative bias for the S&P500 for the short term so I'm still concerned that we might see a breech of that level before we turn higher.