Weekend Market Report

Introducing 5 day S&P500 volatility forecasts! Read below the fold!

Weekend Market Report
Photo by Johann Walter Bantz / Unsplash

Good morning and welcome to another edition of the Weekend Market Report. This week we drop some links on nuclear energy, everyone's misunderstood Micron Technology (MU), wonky consultants, and our usual gold and silver price forecasts.

Wait, there's more! We're (re)introducing the 5 day S&P500 historical volatility price directional forecasts and we highlight a new stock that we're keeping a lazy eye on for trend trading reasons.

The stage is being set for an American nuclear power revolution

I'm a big fan of Nuclear energy production. The main reason is that it's very efficient and it's a great way to keep more greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.

Congress passed a bill to help reinvigorate the anemic U.S. nuclear industry, with the support of President Biden and 88 senators. Not a single Republican voted against it.

Great news but we have a long way to go on this. Nuclear energy production is forecasted to drop over the next few years.

Given such slow progress toward replacing aging infrastructure, the Energy Department has warned that the nuclear industry will keep shrinking. By 2040, the country is projected to produce 20 percent less energy from nuclear power than it does today.

Read more about it here and read my where are they know article on USEC Inc.

Micron stock falls despite multiple price target boosts

Here's one a classic example of how the market is rigged against the retail investor. Micron (MU) - the largest memory chip maker - "falls" in trading after earnings, while simultaneously the big investment house are upgrading it.

Micron stock falls despite multiple price target boosts
Shares of Micron (MU) are falling on Thursday afternoon despite receiving multiple price target increases from JPMorgan, Needham & Company, and TD Cowen. JPMorgan is especially bullish on Micron, calling the company one of its top picks for the semiconductor space. Yahoo Finance Anchors Josh Lipton and Alexandra Canal discuss Micron’s latest developments and what they could mean for the stock moving forward. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination. This post was written by Nicholas Jacobino

Of course the selloff appears to be related to hedge funds disappointed that MU didn't cash in fully. @DonCorleone77 has a great write up on why sometimes this dichotomy exists.

The fact of the matter is, everyone in the finance game is trying to make money and we can never really know the motivations of all the industry players. That is where you will have to make decisions in an attempt to navigate the investing landscape and determine the best moves based on your investment strategy which, by the way, will be different for different people. For example, if you are a short-term trader, you might spend a lot of time trying to figure out near-term possible swings. On the other hand, a long-term investor might look to invest in companies with strong prospects realizing that there may be ups and downs along the way but, overall, they are comfortable in believing a particular stock will likely go up over time.

Wonky consultants are winning in the AI boom

No doubt about it, there are people cashing in on the AI Boom and it's either NVDA or consultants. Everyone is either selling the gold pans or the deeds.

The next big boom in tech is a long-awaited gift for wonky consultants. From Boston Consulting Group and McKinsey & Company to IBM and Accenture, sales are growing and hiring is on the rise because companies are in desperate need of technology Sherpas who can help them figure out what generative A.I. means and how it can help their businesses.

LOL, all roads lead to Nvidia with their GPUs.

General market commentary

The markets had a wild ride this week with a lot of intraweek price volatility. In the end it was the Dow that closed lower for the week with the S&P500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 making gains; all to varying degrees.

The gold price forecast model is current 50% correct as last week's price forecast was for lower gold but it prices rose instead. The silver price forecast model is currently 75% correct as last week's price forecast was for a lower close this past Friday. We'll provide model accuracy on the historical volatility (HV) direction for the S&P500 starting next week.

Note: There are currently 4 "in the field" predictions for the gold and silver price forecast model accuracy and we expect the % accuracy to vary until we have at least 10 predictions or so. We'll evaluate the model then if it's bunk or not and anticipate the directional accuracy to be between 60 to 80% correct if the backtesting is valid.