Will Things Get Worse?

Posted on Mo 06 August 2007 in misc • 1 min read

  • Trends tags: [] meta: _aioseop_keywords: S&P500, Volatility, Monte Carlo, Simulation, Rate of Change, Percentage, Sell Off dsq_thread_id: '181041992' author:

    S&P500 Volatility HistogramThe S&P500 dropped 2.6% on Friday and the chances of that happening roughly is 0.14% over 10,000 observations (trading days) on any given day. It goes to show you that these events are rare but they do happen. Could things get worse for the S&P500 and the markets in general? Of course they could but we won't know for certain until each day goes by!

    PS: You'll be happy to know that a 3.2% down move for the S&P500 has only a 0.02% chance of happening (over 10,000 obs). If I see that, I'm a big buyer!