As I wrote in my Feb 2009 post “Where’s the Market Bottom”, I believe the real estate and equity markets have more downside coming. Now someone’s IYR model, is setting up for a possible test of its March lows. Hehehe. I built a fast IYR model myself using Stock Neuromaster to see if I can match his “box” model. My model show a short signal generated on 4/1/09 for 4/2′s open, which remains short this morning. Read more...

I've been working on updating my various stock and forex models, both in Rapidminer and other platforms, and just built a test model for EWS using Stock Neuromaster. It seemed that it had some false signals at the most recent bottom but managed to catch a small leg up. I wonder if it'll go long again or stay out of the market as shown! Remember, the signals tell you to enter or exit at the next day's open from where they are generated. Read more...

I want to teach my kids how to play Go when they get old enough because I think its a good to get them to think about strategy, patience, and game psychology early on. I found it interesting that a comic book started Go's resurgence in Japan. I wonder what it would take to do so here? Keep an eye for the kid playing the really old man. I found it interesting that this game matches your ability, not your age. Read more...

After I read this WSJ article I realized that we are in the buying opportunity of a lifetime. That is if you are a contrarian, emphasis mine. =) The ups and downs of the market are prompting more retail investors to abandon buy-and-hold strategies in favor of opportunistic trading. Some want more control over their money, so they are fleeing funds and advisers — not to mention the feelings of helplessness raised by recent months’ losses. Read more...

Since my time away from blogging, I’ve found a new distraction addiction to keep my overactive mind busy. It’s called Go, an ancient strategy game that’s really big in the Asian world but catching on here. Its a fun game and I routinely get beat online by 6 year old children from all over the world. So, what does Go have in common with neural nets and AI? Quite a lot actually because programmers are working frantically to build a Go program that can beat humans. Read more...

I’ve used EasyNN plus in the past and I still use it today. I think it’s a great product for a lot of general neural net applications and the occasional stock fundamental analysis model. I use EasyNN plus primarily for Yahoo Stock Fundamental Data analysis and building data models that help me select the “right stock poised for growth”. I know I can do that in Rapidminer but I find it quicker to use EasyNN plus because of the screen outputs that let me identify stock sensitivity in a blink of an eye (more on this later). Read more...

I recently downloaded the new version of TraderXL and was surprised to see a major update to the ClassifierXL module (as part of the NeuroXL suite). I’ve used this module before to classify like groups of stocks and identify (per my requirements) the right stock to buy out of a group of many. Major updates to the module include a better GUI interface and the inclusion of five neural net functions, namely the Threshold, Hyperbolic Tangent, Zero-based Log-sigmoid, Log-sigmoid and Bipolar Sigmoid functions. Read more...

My weekly S&p500 timing model is still showing elevated volatility levels but a major easing off the insane levels from last year. While this is a major improvement, we are still not out of the woods. The real bottom isn't here yet and I expect a little more pain before everyone throws up their hands and capitulates. Overall the model remains in BUY mode from 11/14/08 and I've been adding more money to my 401k and IRA's as a result. Read more...

I entered a small position in EWH yesterday after my newly updated neural net model said "go short young man." So I went short @ $10.95 and currently sit on a small loss. Based on how the index futures are behaving this morning, my stop might just get triggered. We'll see. Update: Sure enough I was stopped out at the open. Look at EWH go. :)

Hi all! The stresses in my personal and work life are subsiding now and I’m happy to say that’ll I be posting again at some level of frequency. I was lucky to be extremely busy with infrastructure work in the past few months which turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Why? It kept me out of this insane market! So I’ve been busy updating my models and getting ready to do some “light” trading. Read more...