Cruise Lines are Sinking

Cruise lines are sinking but which ones will stay afloat in the year of Covid19?

Cruise Lines are Sinking
Photo by Jason Blackeye / Unsplash

We all went on our first cruise last year on Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH). S and I had a great time, our kids were bored. When my wife first proposed the idea of going on a cruise, I rejected it. I was like "why do I want to be cooped up on a floating metal coffin?" I was wrong, I had a blast of a time.

The food was fantastic. There was so much to do for entertainment, and different port of calls were great too. Overall S and I had a fun time and we decided to do another cruise again. We were planning something for this or the next year when Covid19 hit.  With a few cruise lines having infected passengers, the near halting of travel, and the Covid19 pandemic, it's not hard to imagine these companies 'taking on water.'

Here's some news that Norwegian might be getting ready to file for Bankruptcy protection if it can't get new financing. The code word here is 'liquidity' problems.

Carnival cancels all cruises through the end of Summer 2020. These guys were the ones with the 'infected cruises.' I think they really need to do more here to offset the negative press.

Royal Caribbean extends its cancellation policy through 2022 if you cancel within 48 hours. Just like Norwegian, Royal Caribbean is also looking to raise new financing.

Now I can't vouch for how good Carnival (CCL) or Royal Caribbean (RCL]) ships are, but Norwegian made a good first impression on me. It would be a shame to see one or two of these cruise companies fall into bankruptcy but these are extraordinary times.

I might even consider buying some of NCLH stock if it keeps going down because I had some a good time with them, but full stop. I should look at this dispassionately and choose which cruise line will survive and thrive when things get better.

IMHO, things are going to get worse in the USA in the short term. Covid19 is NOT over and a few dipshit Governors are racing to reopen their States. I shall sit on my hands and wait.


It seems that news of the two Covid19 vaccines has helped the cruise industry. Norwegian had a breakout over resistance and looks to be going higher. Still, if you look at a long-term chart, it looks sad, the 52-week high was in the $50 range.

Carnival Cruise Lines wants to break out but is still hung up around its resistance line. Its recent 52 week high was in the $45 range.

Royal Carribean on the other hand looks like the strongest of the bunch. However, those dojis give me some pause. Its 52-week high was in the $120 range.

My money would be on Royal Caribbean going forward, but this is a risky industry that's tied to the whims of the general US consumer and strange diseases like Covid19. It's risky to sail into uncharted waters.

Disclosure: Long RCL