Random Thoughts About Trends

Posted on So 20 Mai 2007 in Stocks • 2 min read

My wife chides me for thinking too much and spending too much time observing things. I must admit, its certainly fun to observe trends and then think of the possible outcomes if and when the trend bursts. Here are my random thoughts for this slow Sunday morning on a few trends:

Peak Oil - Although I believe in the concept of peak oil, I just don't know when its going to happen. It could be 2010 or 2510. Still though, China will consume more oil as they catch up to us. It's probably a smart idea to be long oil but you didn't need a neural net to tell you that!

Alternative Energy - It's a good idea and I'm all for it. I'm just wondering if the trends we're seeing in this market will collapse just like it did in for the dotcom companies. Usually, a handful of the companies survive to make it to the next round after a bubble crash. Amazon and Ebay made it, did Pets.com? I don't know enough about the players in this field to be able to pick the one that I think will survive.

Water Resources - As a civil engineer, the keystone to growth of a civilization is clean water. After water is sanitation and food production but it all starts with water. Expect more strength in the water trend as I'm sure we'll see water wars one day as one nation builds a dam and deprives a downstream country of their water.

Crocs - I don't get this trend but people love them. I expect Crocs to go the way of the dinosaur one day as some company will come up with a better shoe/sandal. Maybe they'll call it O' shit, get it? Croc O' Shit. Never mind.

China - China's growth will continue to trend higher as this nation emerges as the new super power. I worry about its fast growth but then again I worry too much. They're growth reminds me of weeds that grow so fast that their root system can't support them and they collapse. I just don't know if a possible collapse would come from the inside (strife, rebellion, pollution) or externally (war). I very well might be wrong with my assessment and China could emerge into a nice cuddly Panda Bear instead of an aggressive Dragon.

US Elections 2008 - The Flying Spaghetti Monster wins.

[tags]Crocs, China, Water, Oil, Energy, FSM[/tags]